Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Hand Analysis Time

Alright Miami! Get rested for those scumbag Pistons.

My WWDN finish was 21st yuk. I made a mistake playing heads up as the SB against the BB that crippled me to T900 and I then went card dead. I was actually able to steal blinds once an orbit for seven orbits with nothing more than a K high which kept me around longer than I should off. When I finally got and Ace I pushed A-10 and lost to A-J. Oh well, one mistake and shit cards and that its all she wrote.

Okay we've been having so much fun with hand analysis that I'll give an interesting hand I had today in a cash game. I'm very intersted in hearing the feedback. Unfortunately I don't have a Power Point presentation like my friend Hoyazo so we'll do it old school.

Seat 1: anothermoron ($38.35 in chips)
Seat 2: pieNchips ($36.50 in chips)
Seat 3: MiamiDon ($94.50 in chips)
Seat 4: Aart13 ($103.05 in chips)
Seat 6: Ede_Kowalski ($27.80 in chips)
Seat 7: muledog ($16.90 in chips)
Seat 8: jerseygene ($43.45 in chips)
Seat 9: bueno09 ($111.90 in chips)
muledog: posts small blind $0.50
jerseygene: posts big blind $1
ahyums: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MiamiDon [Ah Th]
bueno09: folds
anothermoron: folds
pieNchips: folds
MiamiDon: raises $2 to $3
Aart13: calls $3
Ede_Kowalski: calls $3
muledog: calls $2.50
jerseygene: folds

From middle position I make a 3xBB raise. I have a marginal hand here hence the reason for the small raise. I picked this up playing live at the MGM and the purpose is to get some action from a few other players with marginal hands and try to make some money by outplaying them post flop which of course has potential risks. If anyone has a high pocket pair they usually re-raise so its an easy hand to muck if needed but what usually happens is we get 3-5 players, which is what happened here.

*** FLOP *** [Tc 4c Ac]
muledog: checks
MiamiDon: bets $8

So I flopped top two pair but I'm staring at three clubs. Now with four players this could get interesting and especially for me as I hit the flop hard. I bet 2/3 the pot as a feeler bet more than a continuation bet. I'm anxious to try and find out if anyone might have a flush or flush draw or maybe even an Ace.

Now I don't want to overbet this pot even to reduce drawing odds because quite frankly I want to make more money than the $12.50 in the pot and I'm willing to gamble that my 65% will hold up if someone is drawing to the flush. If a club hits on the turn I get out and if not I then overbet taking away odds but hoping to get action with the temptation of a juicy pot. Also if someone caught and Ace they might come along for the ride too. So I've weighted out the risk reward factor and I'm hoping to get this pot up to $50-$70 and take it down or again be able to get away somewhat cheaply.

Well here comes the shock factor.

Aart13: raises $42 to $50
Ede_Kowalski: folds
muledog: folds
MiamiDon:????

The questions now are 1. How do you think I've played the hand so far? 2. With this huge re-raise what could this player possibly have? 3. What should my response be to his re-raise?

I'm really looking forward to see some thoughts here. I went into the tank using almost all my allotted time before I made my decision. I'll update later and I'll give you my thought process and the hand results.

I'll see everone tonite at my favorite online event The Mookie.

11 Comments:

At 4:22 AM, Blogger Thirsty said...

Without knowing how that guy had been playing before this hand its difficult to know his range and how to play against his raise.

I am putting him on either bottom 2 pair or connected clubs (7/8)both hands he is worried of losing to a higher flush or your top 2 pair and he is trying to chase you off the pot.

Then again....who knows.

 
At 5:43 AM, Blogger DP said...

I always lead out when I flop a big hand in a multiway pot, because no one ever thinks you would bet it and you get action.

This is crazy though. I have no clue.

 
At 12:04 PM, Blogger iamhoff said...

I'm with Thirsty, how was villain playing up to that point? It looks like it was a $100 NL table, and he was barely above that, so he's probably had a little up and down. He made something, but not a nut hand, otherwise he would've smooth called your feeler bet. He called your preflop raise, so I'd either put him on a medium to high ace (but not AK) or lower club connectors. He's put in a bet large enough to lower the pot odds, but not large enough to risk his entire stack. He either has you beat or can likely beat you if he pairs his other card (J or Q). Can't wait for the answer.

See ya at the Mookie.

 
At 12:11 PM, Blogger Tom aka 10,000 Days said...

Huh... big range here.

Probably not bottom two. You'd hope no one would call with 10-4.

Possibly A-4. Possibly bottom set. Also possible he make a flush with low suited connectors.

All the possible hands I'm thinking of (except A-4) beat your hand. I have a tough time calling here without having a good read on the villain, although that's a really gross raise. Way more than what's needed. He might only have the A of clubs here.

 
At 12:47 PM, Blogger drewspop said...

With the limited info, I am going to hope this guy is a little tighter at a full table preflop than baby suited connectors or even A rag with a few to act after him.

I am thinking he may have pocket 10's or AxKc.

It is a gross overbet but I probably fold with 2 pair and the flush possibility.

btw, I totally suck at cash games so take it for what it is worth. See you at the Mook.

 
At 3:12 PM, Anonymous mookie99 said...

My first thought would be the Kc or two baby clubs. Now what I would do here, not sure...probably fold to the huge overbet into a smaller pot. But as Chris says (and what you will probably witness in June) I suck at cash games (and MTTs and ...you get the idea)

 
At 3:19 PM, Blogger cc said...

Don--

This may or may not be anal, but you actually raised 2xbb, not 3x (bb is $1, you raised $2 to a bet of $3). I think this is actually very important as I would rather get hands out with a marginal hand like AT. Don't know if it would have mattered here unless he as 9c8c. I like folding pre-flop or raising 3.5-4xbb vs. 2xbb. I like your flop bet then I fold. My guess is you're flushed out 30% of the time with no draws, ahead to a flush draw 20% of the time, behind to a set 20% of the time, and way ahead 30% of the time. I changed the number ten times so none of that is accurate, but I'm guessing you don't have the pot odds to call. I'll vote for connecting or gapped connecting clubs, QcJc or KcJc. Pot is $70 with a $42 call and he has you covered for the your other $40-45. I like him shoving on a bluff but probably golden here.

 
At 6:12 PM, Blogger HighOnPoker said...

1) I don't know about your play before the tough decision, but you explained everything well, so as long as you had a plan, I like it.

2) Fold it. The likelihood that he has you beat is fairly high. He may have a low flush and doesn't want to give you odds to call and beat him with a higher club (which, we know, you don't have). OR he may have a set, and is also trying to protect his hand.

Now, you may be ahead to an under-two pair. That'd be ideal. But with all of those clubs, I'd imagine he'd be scared to bet out with two pair after facing a bet. But he could have it.

The final possibility, as I see it, is that he has AxKc. Even if he doesn't have that hand and he just has any club at all, he stands a decent chance of hitting the card. Not only is it a possibility that he has a club, but it's also a good possibility that the folders did NOT have any clubs. If they were willing to call your raise preflop, they more likely than not had high-cards, and if they held a Jc or higher, they'd at least hesitate a bit before folding. Of course, this is pure conjecture, and they may've been smart enough to fold a Jc.

My point is, with any club, he has a 35% chance of hitting and beating you, even if he thinks he's purely bluffing.

There is ~$21 in the pot and he is betting $42. So your odds are atrocious! Add this to the analysis above and it just ain't worth it. Mind you, I would not be the least surprised if he is bluffing, but I wouldn't pay $42 to find out.

3) Yes, cc, you are being anal.

By the way, my guess is that he has KcQc and that he raised very large to fool you into calling.

 
At 6:14 PM, Blogger HighOnPoker said...

Um, my pot odds comment was a little off. Obviously the odds aren't 21:42, but rather 63:42, which still isn't that great.

 
At 6:58 PM, Blogger TripJax said...

Did he have AK with the King of clubs?

I'm guessing you called.

Looking forward to seeing what happened...

 
At 2:01 AM, Blogger Iakaris aka I.A.K. said...

Very Interesting...the guesses above took the most logical options...he's not short-stacked, so I can't see why he'd be dumping half his stack in without a made hand, but given the huge overbet, it looks like he really doesn't want you to call, it's confusing to me. Given all this, I guess I'd go with the Baby Flush Hypothesis.

I don't think I'd call this, but obviously not for any sophisticated reason, just the fact that it looks like there's a lot of ways to lose this hand, and 40 hard yards before your AT gets into the end zone.

I am looking forward to the conclusion of this and I'll be up poring through your archive and sleeping in tomorrow. You are single-handedly halting the advance of medical research, so thanks for that.

Cya out there.

 

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