Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Carpenter

Post number 100, I'm impressed. How about those Cardinals baby? Carpenter the Ace gets the job done and we head to Game 4 up 2-1. It will be nice to get a win with Suppan on Wednesday to really put the pressure on Detroit.

Token races pissed me off today. We're on the bubble and I'm the shorty in the SB it folds to me and I push with 55. BB has 66 and down I go. Next one bubble time I have TT and push only to get called by 44, yup 4 on the river. These ass fuckings are getting old as I've yet to learn how to enjoy them. So I cleaned the kitchen and the floors and cooked a roast.

Why do 90% of gamblers bet the favorites? I think its natural, Team X is much better than Team Y and they should kick their ass so sure I'll give the points. It's an unnatural thing to bet the lesser of the teams thinking they'll stay within a certain amount of points.

Beware of the Home Underdogs particularly in the NFL. Last week was set up for disaster from the get go. 7 Home dogs and 5 covered the spread all winning outright. I was at the Red Rock as usual with my other professional gambler friend Chris and there must have been at least 500 people watching the early games. When Kansas City jumped out to an early lead there was exactly 4 of us rooting for the Chiefs. So we had 496 gamblers betting the Chargers and 4 of us betting the Chiefs.

Why? Well San Diego kicked the shit out pretty much everyone they've played and the Chiefs got blown out by the Steelers the Week before and barely beat the Cardinals the week before that. So it makes sense the Chargers are the play right? Well if the Chargers were the play why was the line only 5' points. Really it should have been 10+ but only 5? Whenever you go to Vegas and lines look to good to be true, be fucking careful. I've learned that lesson the hard way over the years. This isn't like some donkey at the tables who unless he sucks out is dropping a few buy-ins, this is the house baiting the player hook line and sinker. If it looks too good to be true it is.

Now the bookies sometimes take a few weeks to get their lines really solid as teams over or under perform the first few weeks so a look at these numbers will show what happens with home dogs as the season goes on.

Home Dogs
Week 1 3-5
Week 2 2-2
Week 3 4-2
Week 4 3-3
Week 5 1-1
Week 6 4-1
Week 7 5-2

So favorite players are even (minus juice) for the first five weeks playing what they think are easy wins and then boom Week 6 and 7 cost players in a huge way. I guarantee the Sports Book will be quiet this week as players got killed two weeks in a row and their money will be tight. Now this is just a small example but its one of the lessons that I was taught. Learn how to bet underdogs and learn how to win over the long haul.

Alright the Big Game is set up on Full Tilt and we already have two players signed up. Start winning those tokens so we can try and get our numbers up to 50.



And while we're at it don't forget to get out and play in this fine event.

3 Comments:

At 11:53 AM, Blogger HighOnPoker said...

I may have spouted this out here before, but Amarillo Slim, in his book, states that most bettors bet the favorites, so the bookies slant the line so that the favorites are giving too many points (since bettors will bet on them anyway). Like you said, the value is in the underdog, and when they are a home underdog, its only moreso.

Congrats on your 100th post.

 
At 4:03 PM, Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

100 posts man, isn't that your Centennial or something? Nice work with that.

Very interesting information there on the home underdog records week to week this year. I will say that, having bet a lot of football in the past before finally facing up to the fact that I am a long-term money loser at betting sports, I always had a rule that I barely relied on the lines during the first four weeks or so of the season. In my experience it usually takes Vegas a good 4 weeks and 4 games per team to get a good sense of which teams are actually contenders and which are actually just pretenders. So I should not be too surprised to see that trend with the home dogs as the season progresses.

One more thing -- again from experience I could not agree more with you about the whole "too good to be true" thing. I literally cannot count how many times I lost money betting on a favorite who should kill the underdog in a game, but since the line is miraculously only 3 or 4 points, I go with the favorite and expect them to pound it. Of course they show up lame and lose, or just eek it out in the end, much to my chagrin and it sounds like the chagrin of most of the players in the sports books watching these things. In either case, I second your sentiment whole-heartedly -- watch out for the too-good-to-be-true lines -- they usually are!

 
At 5:37 PM, Blogger DefendTheBlinds said...

What do you think of the 'Canes being +5 this weekend?

 

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