Monday, October 30, 2006

Hedge? You Make the Call

Okay no poker in this post but we will get into some gambling. A very interesting situation has presented itself and I'm curious to get some feedback from the gambling world.

If you do give feedback make the dollar amounts somewhat relative to an amount you might gamble as I think it will give for a more accurate answer.

Suppose a random gambler here is Vegas played a $50 five-team parlay that pays 22:1 so the payback on the ticket is $1150. The first four games played on Sunday were all winners leaving one game left to cash the ticket. The last game is the Monday Night Football.

Now this random gambler won $1300 on Saturday and $1475 on Sunday so this parlay is by no means a bail-out luckbox two-outer. So the questions I pose with the money already won are:

1. Do you let the last game of the parlay ride and hope for a killer weekend?

2. Do you hedge the bet so you guarantee winning money just for watching the Monday Game?

3. If you hedge the bet how much do you bet on the opposing team in the Monday Night Game? Don't forget to add in the 10% juice.

I'm totally up in the air at this point in what I would do. The smart/conservative thing to do would be to hedge the bet, count your money, and watch the game for entertainment sake but what fun is that?

If the original team wins then you're pissed for hedging and you're going to have a very nice weekend no matter what happens so why not let it fly and add some real excitement to the game, I mean that nervous anticipation is some of the reason we gamble right? Nothing like having a $1100 on Monday Night Football.

Let's see what you're made of boys or girls, does anyone feel like gambling?


At 2:44 AM, Blogger smokkee said...

the gambler in me says, let it roll. i wouldn't hedge it.

At 8:12 AM, Blogger Poker Jones said...

One of my favorite -EV games in Vegas is Let It Ride ...

At 9:50 AM, Blogger DefendTheBlinds said...

I never hedge.

At 9:54 AM, Blogger Iakaris aka I.A.K. said...

You know me D - I rarely gamble. But when I do...I never hedge. It's anathema to the whole idea.

At 10:06 AM, Blogger jjok said...

So a guaranteed 550-600 or the possibility of 0 or 1150....

um, I hedge and don't even think twice about it.

And then be happy for my +$3K weekend.

At 10:09 AM, Blogger Jason said...

My understanding is that poker and sportsbetting is the majority of you income. With that in mind I hedge. I know you partially play for the excitment, but nothing is more exciting than winning money. smart thing to do is hedge. to support this I give you a poker analogy. In poker, if you had a 1500 pot (500 yours 500 from a player you were heads up against and 500 dead money) your opponent offered you a deal to take all your 500 out and split the 1000. I take this deal even if I know i'm ahead just to avoid a suckout.
All that being said I let it ride just to feel the rush of having a big bet on moday night football.

At 10:22 AM, Blogger mookie99 said...

In keeping with the poker much tilt will be involved if you don't hedge and the parlay doesn't come through ?

At 11:35 AM, Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

Who gives a some poker you degenerate!! You freaking won 2500 bucks this weekend and if you dont make the parlay your out fifty bucks.

So the only question is do you want to make 500$ guarenteed or double it. The smart person would take the guarenteed as it is 20% of your current winnings which is a decent amount. It would be great to always be in such a good situation.

At 1:20 PM, Blogger DefendTheBlinds said...

Put down 50% of your weekend profit on red or black and hope the roulette wheel is tilted in your favor.

Or, go play some 5-10 NL when you see a soft game.

At 2:18 AM, Blogger Blinders said...

You can't hedge that. Just bet a 4 team parlayinstead if you don't want it to ride on Monday. Less juice that way.

At 6:18 PM, Blogger Huge Junk said...


Let it ride.

If you're playing 5 team parlays you're playing them for a big payout. So why get yourself in a position to win that big payout and then puss out and hedge it?

Let it ride then go piss it all away on blackjack. Nice.

At 12:42 PM, Blogger smokkee said...

i hope you had NE and decided not to hedge it.

At 3:47 PM, Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Bring on the hedge, boys. I would hedge that shite in a second, assuming I can get some good payday out of it since I've already won 4 of the 5 games in the parlay. I understand everyone saying you're only playing a 5-team parlay to make the big score, but now you've got a chance to get some of that big score, and with the $2500 you already won over the weekend, I would hedge in a heartbeat. Guys, we're talking about phucking sports betting here -- it's totally out of your control, and usually you're going to get screwed by betting the lines. You make the hedge, you take the money, and you pocket tons of cashish for the weekend.

And then lose it all in large buyin mtt when some fucker world champion runner-runner flushes you after getting you allin when he was behind. Pussies.


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