Saturday, September 30, 2006

NCAA Football

Two ugly losers in a row on Monday and Thursday. Back on track today.

328 U Conn -2
370 Va Tech -9'
376 Minnesota +10
384 Fresno St -13
394 Florida Intl -7'

Friday, September 29, 2006

Midnite Madness

I took the $10 druggie buggie in for service yesterday and they needed to order one extra part which took longer than expected so I didn't pick it up until after kick-off of the TCU-BYU game. Thankfully so. Since it was late I couldn't drive up to Red Rock to make my bet on TCU so I saved myself some money there.

After yesterday's ass pounding I stayed away from poker until about 8:57pm when I noticed the Midnite Madness event getting ready to go. So I said, "What the heck," and I signed up for the donkest.

Long story short I did rather well and was in 2nd with 26 left when I ran my AQ into AA. Luckily I was still in 14th after the beat and I played good aggressive POST-FLOP poker and got myself right back into contention. What is it with MTT push monkeys? Blinds are 1500/3000 and the monkey with T45000 wants to push instead of 3 or 4x and playing post-flop if need be. Nope they all push.

So I fight my way back into 6th with 15 left and I find QQ. I raise 3.5X get called and push the guy off of the King high flop. Very next fucking hand I get QQ and here are the results.



My read was the guy had the Jack and not the King and the Jack. Oh well KJ is a shit hand so congrats to him.

Not that its a big deal but here is my finish.



I haven't played enough MTTs but I'm going to grind some out and see if I can't final table then win on of the bigger guarantees on Full Tilt. I feel it.

Okay here are the lines and over/unders for Sunday's blogger Fantasy Football. Two games are off the board because coaches have yet to set their line-ups.

General Lee -6
Hornets 121

JJ -2
Waffles 110

Miami Don -3'
Mookie 113

Hoyazo 4
Non-Blogger 95

If Raveen and/or Surflexus update their line-ups I'll get those lines out. Bet at your own risk.

I'll be back on track Saturday with some winners.

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Sets

Thursday night College Football, TCU -5'. I like this game and hope if makes up for Mondays loser.

I'm sick of online poker. I put in a lot of hours the last two days playing cash games as well the the blogger events and man is my ass sore. I'm not complaining in a Waffles-like way as I made a lot of money at the Sports Book and playing live poker from Friday to Monday but enough bad timing and beats already.

I'm getting blasted by sets. AK and AQ both times flop top two pair and lose to sets of sixes and nines. See AA seven times, five in the blinds and get no action, twice in position only to lose to a flopped set of threes and a turned set of twos. I haven't been able to hit sets of draws and the only way I've stayed halfway afloat is by playing position and bluffing.

Oh wait after 37 straight pocket pairs I hit my first set. Here are the results.



My competitiveness wants me to sit right back down at the tables and get a winning session in but right now I'm unsure if I'll play cash or just play a couple token races and MTTs. The majority of my action will be live though, as the dead money there is huge.

Speaking of tokens, I was playing one last night and as we near the bubble this fucking asshole named MizzouAces was second in chips. There were eight of us left and this ass clown lets his timer expire on every fucking hand. Seeing this was a turbo I find this to be an absolute bush league move and of course told him so. Unfortunately I got 6th and he got the token due to his amateur tactics. I'll find that fucker and payback will be mine. If anybody else has a chance bust this dude.

I have fantasy football lines nearly done, I just need the stragglers to update their line-ups so I can finish and post.

Go Horned Frogs.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Wow

Was I on the wrong side of the game last night. New Orleans is extremely well coached and they have a much better team than I expected. Oh well, it was still a winning weekend.

I went up to the Red Rock yesterday around 2pm looked at next weeks lines, made a losing bet on Atlanta, and decided to play some 1/2NL. Man it was donkey city. There was me, a dealer from Sahara, and 8 retirees who must have been killing time until dinner because I seriously saw some of the worst poker anywhere.

At the MGM the players, while still terrible, at least have a basic idea of starting hands, somewhat know when to raise or fold, and rarely are they complete calling stations unless they're European or French Canadian. Not the seniors at the Red Rock.

The saying I've been hearing lately is, "Any Ace Any Face" and these players will take those weak hands all the way down to the river. Here are a few examples of brutal beats I saw.

This one happen to me. I'm on the button and there are five limpers and I make it $15 to go with KJ sooted. Three limpers call. I don't usually play KJ as its a chip eater but in position with the limpers I give it a go. Flop comes KJ5 rainbow. UTG bets $20 into the $65 pot it's folded to me and I re-raise the guy to $50. He thinks a minute and pushes. Now I'm thinking the only thing that gets me is a set but going back to the "Any Ace Any Face" theory he must be on the King and since I have top two pair I'm probably good. I call and turn over my two pair and he turns over K2 sooted. Top pair worst fucking kicker. He hits runner runner spades for a flush and down I go. BTW its always spades that get me on runner-runners.

Some other dude flops a set re-raises an early bettor and they get all-in. Board is 259, so we have top set and the other genius calls with A4. That's right Ace fucking 4. Turn a 6 river a 3, yes a poker stars hand at its finest. The six card straight knocks out the top set.

Next one flop is 772, yes the hammer. Guy bets, woman pushed, guy calls. Okay who has the 7 and if they both do who has the higher kicker? Women who pushed turns over A7 for trips, guy turns over 99 for two pair. Yup 9 on the river and it's boat over boat.

That's the shit that happens with horrible players occasionally. Luckily I was able to go from (-180) to +140 before it I left. No way I was leaving that table until I was up money, it was that bad, and I didn't figure they could suck out forever. I had a grand in my pocket and I was ready and willing to put it all on the table if need be but fortunately I didn't have to.

I love Las Vegas.

Monday, September 25, 2006

Sunday Beautiful Sunday

I had a really good Sunday and by good I mean I made a lot of money.

Saturday I went to the Red Rock Sports Book and as the games progressed I had a conversation with the guy next to me who come to find out is a professional handicapper. We talk about gambling, Saturday nights college games and Sunday's football card you know all the usual gambling so I picked his brain about alot of different aspect to being a pro sports players.

So Sunday I get to the Red Rock at about 8:30 get a seat and about five minutes later I see my new friend comes in and invite him to sit in the empty seat next to me. We discuss the games, I tell him I love Cleveland, he tells me he loves the Packers and we both like the OVER of the Jets-Bills games.

Easy enough I load up on those three games and throw a three-team teaser and parlay on top of the straight up bets.

Now the best thing about being about to watch 8 games at once is you have a good indication on how good or bad teams played in the first half.

Well Green Bay was only up by 3 but they were spanking Detroit's ass pretty well and the halftime number they posted was Detroit -4'. We looked at each other then bolted to the window and made sizeable wagers on Green Bay +4' for the second half.

Also the Miami-Tennessee game was pathetic (yes I did lose a wager on the Fins) and they posted the total of the second half at 17' and again we looked at each other and bolted towards the window and again made sizeable wager on the second half under.

Two easy winners.

Now its on to the Cleveland game. Before the games started in the morning when people asked or I overheard their conversations it was they were all loading up on Baltimore to kick Clevelands ass. I was felling good about that.

So as the late games started I had a sizeable bet on Cleveland and also needed them to hit a teaser and a parlay. I was slightly nervous as I was playing an underdog who also happened to big the biggest dog action in the casino.

If you've ever been to a Sports Book at one time or another for an NFL Sunday you probably know that if the favorites are winning the place is rocking and if the dogs are winning its kinda eerily quite. Well the dogs won six of eight games early so its quiet and players are chasing their early losers trying to get back to even playing the late favorites.

This brings me to Cleveland's first TD. When Frye completed the long pass to Edwards and he was going in to score I was on my feet shouting GO, GO, GO. Yes I have a big mouth and a loud voice, and it was actually a very funny site seeing me on my feet screaming while the other 500 or so gamblers are looking at me like some asshole as they are on their way to adding another loser to an already tough day.

It was great. I was cheering loudly the rest of the afternoon and when Cleveland went up 14-3 and I did my screaming once again I got about 20 "Sit Down and Shut-Ups." Now I don't root for (m)any gamblers to lose and I took it rather well last week-end when all the big favorites won and I missed the bus so in my mind there was some sense of ironic justice that took place.

When Stover kicked the winning field goal I cashed my tickets and headed for the exits with a huge smile on my face. No sense playing the night game and no sense sticking around to play Poker either, I drove home as the sun starting setting behind the mountains enjoying the feeling that comes with having a fantastic day handicapping.

Anyway if you got this far I'm 13-9 on posted picks for 59.1%. My Monday night play is Atlanta -4. Don't buy the hype of New Orleans and Katrina as that shit means nothing to a much better Atlanta team. New Orleans' defense is horrible and I see Dunn and Vick running all over the Saints.

Hope everyone had a profitable weekend.

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Week 3

Posted 5-3 for Saturday's games which is decent but it can be better. Hopefully you got Wisconsin at +14 and pushed, which I didn't because I played the early games on Friday night. I did get tip on Oklahoma late so overall I had a nice day.

YTD 11-8 57.9% Trying to get that percentage to at least 62.5% which would make for a very successful year.

Sunday action. Don't gag when you hear these picks, I actually like them alot. Of course either the whole world gets paid like last week or I'm one of the few guys smiling when its all done.

199/200 Jets-Bills OVER 34'
206 Miami -10'
216 Cleveland +7 (Hope to get another half to one point by kick-off)

So you're probably thinking that I've lost my mind but I think Miami spanks Tennessee by 20 and Cleveland is in the game all the way against the overrated Ravens.

I've learned the hard way that when a line looks really fishy, likes its almost too easy and 95% of the public is on the easy side, I always go the other way. It doesn't win every time but it wins 75% of the time and those are the edges I look for.

How is Baltimore with their awesome defense only a 7 point favorite against a hapless Cleveland squad that gives up plenty of points yet has trouble scoring 10 points themselves? No wonder the whole world likes the Ravens.

If all goes well I'll give New England a strong look for Sunday night as it may be revenge time from last year's play-off loss.

Good luck and pick some winners.

Friday, September 22, 2006

Saturday Winners

First of all, how did all you donkeys let me make the final table in last nights HORSE? I'm pleased actually that I made it that far as it was only my second time playing, so either most of you guys suck, I have natural card playing instincts or it was beginners luck. I'll go with instinct, no sense insulting anyone.

Okay I missed the bus last week as all the heavy favorites won and the bookies took a beating. Although most players bet any favorites and even the huge favorites, I have trouble laying that much wood. Oh well, it will be interesting to see how this NFL season shakes out because there are some really good teams and really bad teams.

Anyway I'm 6-5 posting games on this site even though I've mixed in some winners and losers that I've bet live. I'm finding that I like making first and second half wagers on NFL games which of course would be impossible to post here.

My early college plays for Saturday are:
105 Wisconsin +13'
112 Missouri -22
132 Va Tech -27
159 Alabama +2

Depending on how those plays go early will influence my late action. Here is who I like later:
152 New Mexico +9'
165 Wake Forest +2'
169 La Tech +23
175 Utah -9

Lots of picks, more than I would usually play, but they all seem to be strong plays but again it will all be dependant on the early games.

I make all my wagers through the Sports Books here in Vegas but I came across this site that appears to be usefull.

Lets get some winners going this weekend.

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Set is No Good

This is how you go out of the Mookie in 3rd place. Not with any A7 tourist crap but with a set to fucking quads.



Congrats to my boy Iak for taking down the top prize. Well played sir.

I do think my MTT is rounding into form and hopefully there will be a big cash soon.

My live cash game is en fuego. I've been mixing my time between $2/5 NL at the Red Rock and $1/2 NL at the MGM and I have a nice run going. Tight aggressive with a few well-timed bluffs seems to be working for me lately. Also I've avoided getting sucked-out on by the calling stations which helps things immensely.

That's it for now.

Sunday, September 17, 2006

NFL Week Two

Atlanta -5
Cin/Clev UNDER 42
Washington +7

Saturday, September 16, 2006

Saturday College Football

Here they are.

Oregon -4'
Vandy +5'
Wisconsin -14
Miami(O) -13

Good Luck to everyone playing the games.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Its Almost Time For Football & Survivor

My life is going through a transition that will see some closure at the end of the month so I'm trying to fight through the awkwardness of this limbo period. For weeks I've felt like writing for some sort of outlet but instead find myself playing poker, following pennant races,(damn Marlins bullpen) studying spreads, and basically withdrawing from most social interaction.

For me, being in limbo is difficult. It took me a lot of years but now I'm usually swift in finding solutions to problems and when that solution is somewhat slower than my liking, I became frustrated. Like most, at certain times I can be very lazy and a major procrastinator but when I do make up my mind to take whatever action is neccessary, I'm full speed ahead. This time though things are out of my control and I'm going to have to wait, to be patient, and to get through the unstable and unpredictable feelings, moods, and emotions of both parties.

Hey congrats to Smokkee, Hoyazo, and Iak for their continued successes at the large field MTTs.

My MTT game has some leaks. Lately I'm able to get around the bubble but I've either had too short of a stack and I push into AA or KK, or I have a decent sized stack and I make one very bad decision. Its frustrating but at the same time I don't play enough MTTs to get the real experience I need to consistently cash.

Believe it or not I've been playing a lot of SnGs and token races as I prepare to satellite into the big live events here in Vegas. I know a handful of players here that make good money playing one table SnGs and satellites and I hope to get that part of my game good enough to make money myself. Fuck I have a pocketful of tokens, I guess I need to start playing in more online events.

The live cash games continue to be profitable although I haven't played as much as I should be. Perhaps when my limbo period ends I'll be much more motivated to sit in the fishtanks here in Vegas.

I've been studying this weekends football card so tomorrow I'll post some hopeful winners. Man last weekend I got to the Red Rock bright and early Sunday morning and got a seat for the games. I was lucky enough to get a table with the individual TV so I could watch my game of choice while following all the other action on the big screens. There is nothing like watching football in Vegas at a nice Sports Book. The crowds, the cheering, the swearing, man it was awesome.

There was an interesting moment when San Fran down by 10 kicked a field goal with like 40 seconds left instead of going for the TD. Now I can see where the move made sense in that they needed two scores but the field goal gave San Fran the cover and 80% of the place was on Arizona. It even looked like a couple guys picked Arizona as a bailout game and they were crushed when the field goal went through. Don't bet football with money you can't afford to lose.

Speaking of wagering, I already placed a bet on Miami -6' over Buffalo. I'm 3-1 so far this year as I was smart enough to lay off the games last Sunday in which I would have gone 1-2.

Don't forget Survivor starts tonite. I'v always loved that show and this season's version they have enough balls to cross the stupid PC lines and divide the tribes along racial lines. I can't wait.

That's it for now. See you tomorrow with updates.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Juice

Crappy day going 1-1. I did make $300 playing cards at the MGM though so it was all good.

NFL Sunday. I hate betting the NFL games this early in the season so I'm going to take the day off. I will say that all the casinos are begging the cappers to play Jacksonville over Dallas. The line opened here as the Jags -3 and it flopped all the way to Dallas -2. A point swing is huge and on games like this I love going again the public. I also think there is value with Tampa and Kansas City as short home favorites but again I'll be watching this week from the sidelines.

Its awesome living on the West Coast and having to set an alarm to watch the games. Live is good.

Stay Profitable.

Friday, September 08, 2006

Down Times in Miami

Well tough week for my Miami teams as both go down in flames during Prime Time action. At least in the NFL you know you'll get beat a handful of times during the course of the year so it's not so bad. The game was in the balance with six minutes to go and Pittsburgh came through down the stretch. I will caution the Steelers and anybody holding Willie Parker on their fantasy team; hes not meant to carry the ball 30 times a game. You better hope he holds up.

Exciting night on the virtual felt. Played $100 NL and after getting up to $190 I gave it all back with QQ against KK losing a $380 pot. I should have known. Between cash and MTTs I've run QQ into KK or AA like six times in a row. Should have folded that shit. On the bright side I jumped up to $200 NL and turned my $200 into $500 in about an hour and fifteen minutes. Found a loose table and got paid on my good hands. I'm going to stick with the $200 for a while and see how that game treats me.

Does anybody have any picks for the weekend? I started the season going 2-0 and I look to add to that this weekend. My first two plays are Missouri -8' and Colorado +2'. Just to set the record straight for those that might not know but the ' means half a point. I'm also leaning towards Army, LSU, and Oregon but so far nothing official on those. If I do get action on those games or any others I'll post them here before kick-off. I've also given the NFL card some time and I will have my choices, if any, up on Saturday.

Fuck I sound like a tout but I'm not. Just a happicapper looking to document and share picks with many of my gambling breathren. I have noticed that many poker players don't know the difference between a parlay and a teaser, neither of which I often play, so I look forward to seeing who handicaps the games along with me.

There are a lot of changes going on in my personal life and although I won't disclose any of the details at this point I will say that change can often times be good and that I'll sacrifice all else for happiness. Hope everyone out there is happy and stays profitable.

Let's pick some winner this weekend you geeks.

Thursday, September 07, 2006

Its All About the Gamble

Well we can talk about Poker since this is a Poker Blog but I think today we'll cover some other areas. Yes I'm still playing a lot of poker, yes for the most part I'm still running well. Nothing eventful is happening lately other than I've finally really started getting the hang of the turbo tokens races and I'm hitting the board lately at about a 75% clip. Hopefully I can turn on of those tokens into a trip to the Aussie Millions.

Started the football season going 2-0 last weekend with Louisville and the Under of Miami-FSU both easy winners. Went to Red Rock today and got all their updated numbers and I'll be studying those numbers heading into the weekend. Hope to keep rolling on the games.

Speaking of games I was sick over the Miami loss on Monday night. I'm not sure which teams your live and die by but having been a Miami fan for so long you come to expect a win every week and being in the National Championship hunt every year. Well fuck, how the mighty have fallen. Sorry I have to put it all on the back of Coach Larry Coker.

Besides the ultra-conservative offensive the big fall of is in recruiting. Coker's first two classes have been nowhere near as productive as sending players to the NFL as his predessor Butch Davis. From '01 or '04 Davis' classes had 19 first round picks and 35 draft picks overall. Coker in two years has 2 first round picks and 14 overall picks. That's a huge drop-off and unless he gets that turned around he won't be in Coral Gables much longer.

How about the Florida Marlins? I'm tired of hearing about the supposed fire sale they had last off-season. Seems to me they traded a bunch of over valued soon to be overpaid players for a bunch of talented youngsters. Basically they traded Beckett, Lowell, Delgado and Juan Pierre for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, Jason Stokes plus six other talented youngster, including Yusmeiro Petit and Renyel Pinto who are already on the roster. Dontrell Willis is the oldest started at 24. Barring injuries and a few additions in the outfield and this team will be tough to beat for years to come. How about a Oakland-Florida World Series Speaker?

Hopefully the Cards or Marlins make a West Coast trip for the play-offs. Any or all Cali bloggers let it be know that I'll make the road trip so make sure to clear those calenders so we can watch baseaball, play poker, and party.

Alright Miami. Let's see if the Dolphins can win the opener and knock off the luckbox Champs from Pittsburgh. I've found a place here in Vegas thats a Dolphin bar so although I'll miss tailgating and my season tickets at least I'll be able to watch the game with fellow Dolphin fans.

Stay Profitable.

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Football Time

As summer nears an end we get into one my favorite sports times of the year. We have College and Pro Football starting and we have the baseball pennant races followed by the play-offs and World Series.

Speaking of football here are my two picks for the weekend. Louisville -22' against Kentucky and Miami-Florida St under 40'. I do like handicapping football and since this is my first football season blogging I will post picks and keep track of my record for all to see. I usually start off slow and don't pick many games early in the season and once the trends start forming I pick up the pace in October and November. Let's hope for a profitable year for me and all the other Cappers out there.

I am missing all the local hype as we get close to the Miami-Florida St. game tomorrow night. South Florida is mostly Miami(private) fans but there are still plenty of Florida and Florida St(public) grads throughout the area. The newspapers are full of rivalry articles, the radio talk shows are all about smack talking and everywhere you go fans are wearing their gear and poking fun at the other schools.

BTW Florida St is really in what should be Southern Alabama so I don't even consider them to be a Florida school and Florida fans are mostly a bunch of hillbilly-assed drunken Central Florida rednecks. A great UF three day weekend would be a Florida-Stetson football game on Saturday, a NASCAR race at Daytona on Sunday and either a drag race or tractor pull on Monday. Don't forget the Confederate flags, and the drunken barefoot foul-mouthed trailer chicks. Heck those Pansy Gators won't even play the Canes in football.

Don't sweat it if your kids are dumb because a 1.5 or better high school GPA can get them into either of those two fine state of Florida institutions. Florida is like the 48th ranked state in education and that definitely carries over to its state universities. There I feel better. I'm missing all the smack talk not being in South Florida but that little rant is what I would have been saying if I was still there so it seems as I'm right at home.

And before you slam the academics of The U, make sure you do your research. Miami's entrance standards are some of the toughest of all Division I schools and we've had to turn away football players in the past few years that qualfied according to the NCAA clearinghouse but didn't meet Miami standards. Four top players that immediately come to mind wound up at Florida, Florida St, Auburn, and NC St. What standards those fine institutions must adhere to.

Enough though. We'll settle things on the field tomorrow.

Go Canes.

And go Cards and Marlins. I'll get a baseball post together early this week but I can only hope that either or both the Cards or Marlins make the play-offs and play in San Diego or LA. For all you baseball fans there that means road trip from Vegas for me. Are you ready.