Monday, October 30, 2006

Hedge? You Make the Call

Okay no poker in this post but we will get into some gambling. A very interesting situation has presented itself and I'm curious to get some feedback from the gambling world.

If you do give feedback make the dollar amounts somewhat relative to an amount you might gamble as I think it will give for a more accurate answer.

Suppose a random gambler here is Vegas played a $50 five-team parlay that pays 22:1 so the payback on the ticket is $1150. The first four games played on Sunday were all winners leaving one game left to cash the ticket. The last game is the Monday Night Football.

Now this random gambler won $1300 on Saturday and $1475 on Sunday so this parlay is by no means a bail-out luckbox two-outer. So the questions I pose with the money already won are:

1. Do you let the last game of the parlay ride and hope for a killer weekend?

2. Do you hedge the bet so you guarantee winning money just for watching the Monday Game?

3. If you hedge the bet how much do you bet on the opposing team in the Monday Night Game? Don't forget to add in the 10% juice.

I'm totally up in the air at this point in what I would do. The smart/conservative thing to do would be to hedge the bet, count your money, and watch the game for entertainment sake but what fun is that?

If the original team wins then you're pissed for hedging and you're going to have a very nice weekend no matter what happens so why not let it fly and add some real excitement to the game, I mean that nervous anticipation is some of the reason we gamble right? Nothing like having a $1100 on Monday Night Football.

Let's see what you're made of boys or girls, does anyone feel like gambling?

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Carpenter

Post number 100, I'm impressed. How about those Cardinals baby? Carpenter the Ace gets the job done and we head to Game 4 up 2-1. It will be nice to get a win with Suppan on Wednesday to really put the pressure on Detroit.

Token races pissed me off today. We're on the bubble and I'm the shorty in the SB it folds to me and I push with 55. BB has 66 and down I go. Next one bubble time I have TT and push only to get called by 44, yup 4 on the river. These ass fuckings are getting old as I've yet to learn how to enjoy them. So I cleaned the kitchen and the floors and cooked a roast.

Why do 90% of gamblers bet the favorites? I think its natural, Team X is much better than Team Y and they should kick their ass so sure I'll give the points. It's an unnatural thing to bet the lesser of the teams thinking they'll stay within a certain amount of points.

Beware of the Home Underdogs particularly in the NFL. Last week was set up for disaster from the get go. 7 Home dogs and 5 covered the spread all winning outright. I was at the Red Rock as usual with my other professional gambler friend Chris and there must have been at least 500 people watching the early games. When Kansas City jumped out to an early lead there was exactly 4 of us rooting for the Chiefs. So we had 496 gamblers betting the Chargers and 4 of us betting the Chiefs.

Why? Well San Diego kicked the shit out pretty much everyone they've played and the Chiefs got blown out by the Steelers the Week before and barely beat the Cardinals the week before that. So it makes sense the Chargers are the play right? Well if the Chargers were the play why was the line only 5' points. Really it should have been 10+ but only 5? Whenever you go to Vegas and lines look to good to be true, be fucking careful. I've learned that lesson the hard way over the years. This isn't like some donkey at the tables who unless he sucks out is dropping a few buy-ins, this is the house baiting the player hook line and sinker. If it looks too good to be true it is.

Now the bookies sometimes take a few weeks to get their lines really solid as teams over or under perform the first few weeks so a look at these numbers will show what happens with home dogs as the season goes on.

Home Dogs
Week 1 3-5
Week 2 2-2
Week 3 4-2
Week 4 3-3
Week 5 1-1
Week 6 4-1
Week 7 5-2

So favorite players are even (minus juice) for the first five weeks playing what they think are easy wins and then boom Week 6 and 7 cost players in a huge way. I guarantee the Sports Book will be quiet this week as players got killed two weeks in a row and their money will be tight. Now this is just a small example but its one of the lessons that I was taught. Learn how to bet underdogs and learn how to win over the long haul.

Alright the Big Game is set up on Full Tilt and we already have two players signed up. Start winning those tokens so we can try and get our numbers up to 50.



And while we're at it don't forget to get out and play in this fine event.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Big Game

Wow. The inaugural blogger "Big Game" was a smashing success. 38 entries, a $2622 prize pool, and nearly $1050.00 for first place. Thanks to all who made it out especially those who may have challanged themselves and their bankrolls playing in a higher buy-in event.

And since the game was a hit we're going to do it again. It will take 44 players to make it a $3000 prize pool and since the game is on November 5th it will be a good chance to gather before we head to the voting booth on the 7th.



My love goes out to Kat for her heartbreaking bubble and to my boy Waffles for getting donked out on the very first hand.

My cash game rocks and my MTT game sucks. I need to either get it straightened out before the end of the year or stop wasting my time and dollars. Don't worry I'll donate my $69 to the next big game.

I did have a fantastic weekend in the sports book. I'll get into more tomorrow but with so many road favorites in the NFL last Sunday all the favorite players took a severe beating. I've never heard it so quiet in a sports book in my entire life. I did go 4-1 and was one of the few who left in a good mood.

Again, thanks to everybody who made it to the "Big Game" and hopefully the numbers will continue to climb.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Real World

From the worst night of live poker in my life, to the best movie I've seen in ten years, to the Cardinals losing game six with their ace losing to some rookie tool. So now something good and positive will happens? Not necessarily. I've never been one of those guys like "break even" Jerry Seinfeld where every thing is a 50/50, I'm more of a walking paradox where I'm extremely optimistic yet unlucky with my world and so cynical when it comes to so many other things.

If I had to guess, which is what I'm doing right now because it really my first thoughts on this in a long time, is the cynicism from being born into this world from a New England family and the optimism comes from being fortunate to get out of New England at an early enough age that I wasn't completely ruined.

I can probably count on one hand the number of people I've met in my life that I could truly trust, you know the kind you can give and envelope to and say don't open this unless x occurs or a guy you can have assist you on a safecracking job because you know that even with pliers and a blowtorch he won't rat you out. Sure those are two extreme examples but I use them for emphasis. Most people are so inherently self-seeking that when it comes crunch time, where its either you or them, believe me you'll be under the bus in less time than it takes for the question to even be asked.

And through all this, the more and more I read and meet bloggers the more I'm really impressed with our little niche in the world. I've only been doing this for seven months or so and I can't help but think about the "honor amongst thieves" adage. Yes plenty of us are degenerate gamblers, we may like to drink to excess on occasion, recreational drugs perhaps are commonplace, we come from all different walks of life, our political views vary, our professions though sometimes common can be very different but we have a bond, a bond different than family but to me seems to run nearly as deep.

We share ourselves in words perhaps more than we do in real time. We understand each other more than spouses, significant others, and our families probably do. We laugh and relate to things each of us share that common people may find disturbing or don't understand the humor in. We're one big happy disfunctional family, loyal, understanding and compassionate in a world gone mad.

The death of poker blogs, whatever, a little more difficulty in moving money in and out of banks to poker sites, a small annoyance, the death of poker no fucking way. Sixty bloggers last night in the Mookie, Forty bloggers for the Bash at the Boathouse, 125 bloggers in Vegas for the Summer Classic, we're not going away, we're getting more and numbers and stronger. New and old school alike building bonds that I'm convinced will last a lifetime.

As I finish this a small smile is on my face. You people that I read every day make a difference in my life, you share yourselves, your happiness and your pain, and give hope, you melt some of my cynicism and continue to affirm that live really is good and it can be whatever we make it. Keep up the brilliant work you donkeys.

Go Cardinals. Take down those Mets, or pond scum as we used to call them in the early 80s.

Stay Profitable and don't forget Sunday:

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

What a Game

Only to the fucking Cardinals. Well actually all you favorite players how much did you lose betting an away favorite and giving up 13 points?

I grew up in St. Louis, the undisputed best baseball city in America, and yes I love baseball and the Cardinals but my first love was easily the St. Louis Football Cardinals, the Big Red, the worst run franchise in sports history. I think it goes back to Bill Bidwell swindling control of the franchise from his brother Charley but kind of like poker just when you think you've seen it all, this current defeat happens.

I no longer have an alligence to the Cardinals as they broke my heart at age 22 when they packed up and headed to the desert. The local TV station continued to show their games for another couple years but my love was lost. Like a bad relationship time and time again they gave me hope only to let me down every single time.

Bidwell is the cheapest and worst owner in sports. It was rumored that he was so cheap each player was issued two pair of socks and they were to last for the season. If you need more replace then yourself. It's because of Bidwell, with his stupid bolo tie and his stupid sons, that the NFL has a minimum salary to go along with its maximum salary cap.

I thought I saw a team blow lots of games many different ways but this one takes the cake. Nothing like having a 23-3 lead, allowing the opponent team only 39 yards and no touchdowns the rest of the game yet lose. If I didn't see it myself I wouldn't believe it. Sorry to all you Cardinal fans out in Phoenix but you better get used to this. New Stadium, new coach, new Quarterback it doesn't matter, as long as the Bidwell name is attached to the Cardinals you can forget about it.

And for all you Bears fans, before you get your panites in a bunch and start comparing yourselves to the '86 Bears and start filming some god awful rap video you better take a look at that game film. Your offense sucks, your Quarterback is a huge question mark, and right now I've seen six teams that are better than your 6-0 squad. Don't forget I watch every single game every single week.

How about that brawl in Miami? Sorry but I loved it. See I'm not bound by any organization that prevents me from calling it like I see it, I'm not some oversensitive tree hugger that buys into all this political correctness shit, I can say what I want and I fucking loved it. I agree 100% with what Lamar Thomas said on the air, and although he's without a job now, I applaud him. What this pathetic going to shit country needs is some people with some balls to start stepping up and saying what they feel and not some prescripted horse shit that we all know is not true. Call a spade a spade and don't pretend it's something else, we not fucking stupid you know.

But hey my life is fucking wonderful and a lot of that reason is because I'm honest. What you see is what you get and I'll never again pretend to be something I'm not. Don't ask me what I think if you don't want to hear my answer.

I love living! Go Canes!

Don't forget Sunday.

Monday, October 16, 2006

Dolphins Baby....Yea Right.

What a horrible football game. At least I was at the Red Rock so there were other games to keep an eye on instead of solely concentrating on that dreadful Miami-Jets game. 1-5 who'd have thought the Dolphins would be so pathetic? Depressing.

It was eerily quiet at the Sports Book today. After weeks of favorites covering, the dogs finally stepped up and won 7 out of 8 early games. Now 80% of bettors are favorite players, meaning the always ride the favs and give the points and when the favs do well the sports book is rocking. Not today. The favorites did come through in the late games so it wasn't a total loss for the bettors.

What is there to say about poker? Cash games went well this weekend but I took some severe beats in the MTTs and didn't hit the board in anything. I've found a juicy MTT on FT that is every night at 7pm et. It's a $75 buy-in with double stacks and even though its a $13K guarantee the last three days the prize pool was $21K, $17K, and $30K. So for a double stack MTT and only having to manuever through 300 or so runners compared to the usually 1200+ in the $26 MTTs its a gerat event.

So tomorrow I'm going to reload on FT for the bonus and work on getting some tokens to give this $13K a shot. And speaking of tokens, $75 MTTs, and Double Stacks don't forget next Sunday. Do you have your token yet?

Friday, October 13, 2006

Football Contest

One pitch. One mistake on a fast ball to Beltran and that's all she wrote. Weaver pitched his ass off but he grooved a fast ball and the Cards are down 1-0. I do feel good about Carpenter going in Game 2 and hopefully we can get out of the shithole known as Shea even at 1-1.

The Stations Casinos, which Red Rock belongs too, has its annual football contest every year with a year long first prize of $100,000. Also each week they give away $20,000 for the best picks and $10,000 for the worst picks. The picks are based straight-up and no point spread is involved. Now I got three plays for $50 so I turn in one sheet, my dad turns in one sheet, and the guest picker turns in the third sheet. So far this year the guest picker has been a blogger and if they win I will split the $20,000 first prize with them although so far no cash.

Here are the results so far.
Week 1 Carmen Sincity 7-8 (22 players went 14-1)
Week 2 JJ 13-3 (18 players 16-0)
Week 3 Hoyazo 8-6 (1 player 14-0)
Week 4 Smokkee 9-5 (13 players 14-0)
Week 5 Waffles 9-5 (1777 14-0)

As you can see it usually takes an undefeated week to get in the tiebreaker and you can also see that if you went 14-0 last week BFD, which means Big Fucking Deal as every favorite won straight-up.(11 covered the spread)

This week the Guest Picker will be none other than the good Doctor himself. We've also arranged a private bet between the Jets and Dolphins so we'll see in a couple days who wins that bet. BTW don't forget to get those essays submitted to Pauly's site as the deadline is tomorrow night. If I had to pick Pauly I would choose whichever Spice the sister is, but since I'm so overly PC (Right Iak) I choose not to complete the essay.

The weekend is upon us and if anybody is interested in picks check out Shea's site for some winners. He's coming off an 11-2 weekend and all his numbers are documented.

As for me it looks like another weekend of poker and gambling. Fuck life is good.

Stay Profitable.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Token Time

Let's see, I donked out early in the WWDN so when action in that event reached the final three I played a $26 token race with Iak, Surf, and Joanne and what do you know? I won a token on my first attempt and that allows me to play in this;



Yes! So I'm the third person to sign up and I hope not the last. Congrats to Joanne for winning a token also.

I'd also like to thank Mookie for the kick ass banner and don't forget to go out and support his event tonight. The Mookie has been at 50 strong lately and we're trying to get that number to 80.



Go Cardinals. Yes we are the underdog but let's see if Jeff Weaver can get the job done as we try and steal Game One in the shithole known as Shea Stadium. The Mets may have some bats but they sure as shit don't have any pitching so anything can happen in this Series.

Monday, October 09, 2006

Blogger "Big Game"

Well what started as possibly being a $200 SnG has worked itself into the newest blogger MTT event. It will start on Sunday night October 22 and will be played every two weeks, opposite weeks of the WPBT.

Here's the dirt. There is no banner yet to promote the game but if anyone feels they would like to show off their banner making skills donations are excepted.

The Blogger "Big Game"
Sunday October 22
21:30 ET
Full Tilt
No Limit Hold'em
Double Stacks
$69 + $6 or a Token
password-- donkey

The game is already available for sign-ups. It is listed under Private Tournaments on Full Tilt.

Yes, you saw it right the entry is $75. Now that price is definitely higher than the entry fees of all the other blogger events, combined even, but there are many ways to enter for much less than the $75.

How you ask? Well by tokens. We talked about a $100 + $9 entry fee but decided on $75 so a token can be used. So for as low as $6 or $8 if you prefer turbos you can start with a Tier I token race and you can work your way up.

Also you can go straight to a Tier II token race for $26 where out of 18 runners they pay out five tokens.

Another possibility is a one table $12 SnG which pays one token. Heck during or after events like the Hoy, WWDN, Mookie, or the Not we could easily get nine bloggers together with the winner getting a seat in the "Big Game."

And for all you big ballers that regularly final table big MTTs or eight table $600NL then the $75 is not really a big deal at all.

So always being the optimist, hopefully we can grow the "Big Game" into a field of at least 30 which would make for a $2000 prize pool and would also allow for some serious bragging rights.

Spread the word, win those tokens and come out and play in the "Big Game."

Friday, October 06, 2006

20K and Weekend Excitement

Now this might not seem like too big of a deal but for a cash game player working on their MTTs I'll take it.



Last week 15 out of 772 in the Midnite Madness and now deep in the $20K. Iak said he's been feeling a final table coming on so I'm going to keep working at this and hopefully I'll get a nice taste. Thanks to Waffles and Hoyazo for their encouragement from the rail.

The MTTs are certainly a big change from the cash games I'm so used to playing. Fuck I've seen more check/raises in two weeks of MTTs than I've seen in a year in a year of cash games. Oh well the more I play the more I learn and I do think I'm to a point that I can shift gears between the two. Last thing I want is having these MTTs fuck up my cash games.

How about the Cardinals baby. I can't stand LaRussa but shrewd move starting Weaver on the Road in Game 2 instead of waiting til this weekend and starting him at Busch. Hopefully Suppan gets the job done in Game 3 and we get the order set for the series with the Mets. How much would the networks hate seeing an Oakland-St.Louis World Series?

I'm looking forward to a weekend of gamblilng and poker. Friday will be some $2/5 action at the Red Rock while I get in my early Saturday plays, Saturday I have some iron man action on Full Tilt followed by late afternoon games and $1/2 at the MGM, and Sunday its back to the Red Rock for the NFL. How good is fucking life man?

Hope you're all staying profitable.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Pujols

It sure seems like the Cardinals own the Padres as today's win makes it 7 straight in the play-offs over the last few years. Is there another sweep in the Cards?

Nice win for Speaker's A's beating Santana in Minnesota. Of course they've been in this situation a few times and haven't closed the door yet. Is this the year Joe?

Anybody else noticed that the Yankees never ever play day baseball in the play-offs? It's been six years Pauly since the Yankees have won the prize and I'm hopeful that maybe they and there trillion dollar payroll will choke again. BTW Pauly did Liz Lieu have her tits done again? It seems like everytime you post a picture they get bigger and bigger, not that I'm complaining.

Oh well if the Cards get to the Series I'll have two possible bets. Speaking of bets JJ you still owe my two pictures. Chop chop bro.

Three coin flips today and three loses, what else is new. Played in a token and lost with 99 vs AQ on a turned Queen. I got crippled in the WWDN when someone ran their 88 into my AK, we saw an A on the flop and of course since its poker stars 8 on the river and I get pissed yet again. An orbit later as the shorty I run 33 into AQ and of course flop is a Queen and I go home.

It might be best for us all, except for luckboxes like CJ and NewinNov, if Poker Stars shuts down in the next couple of days as it will give them time to fixed their heavily skewed suckout program.

After my brutal cash game beatings online lately I've tried more of a hit and run approach to No Limit and so far it seems to be working. Sixty to Ninety minute sessions then take the money and run.

That's it from wonderful Las Vegas, Nevada home of many legal poker rooms and one of the few remaining states with individual rights no governed by bible thumping zealots.

Monday, October 02, 2006

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets

All right my hissy-fit is over. A slightly or maybe not so slightly altered state of mind followed by running KK into AA for too much money and I fucking snapped. I took my ball and went home and when I woke up I realized thats not my style at all.

I'm not a quitter plain and simple. I don't let some minor adversities stop me from moving towards goals and things I want to achieve because if so the jail cell or the heroin or the cancer would have buried me long ago. I fight back and I fight back hard. Things are in perspective today and like usual I'm at peace with myself and my choices.

Ever heard of suitcase bettor. What's a suitcase bettor you ask? In the old days and perhaps still you called your local bookie and you made wagers based on credit. You started betting early on Saturday and you bet all the way through Monday night, you figured out a total and either paid the man on Tuesday or got paid on Friday.

Say you lost $2000 on the games one particular weekend and you only had $500 to pay the man. So you borrow $1500 from your co-worker or brother-in-law with the promise to pay them back in a week. Of course being a degenerate the plan was to bet the next weekends games, win the money, pay back the loan, and eat a fat steak.

Problem is the next Saturday you get killed again and it sets of panic mode heading into Sunday. Panice mode means you bet scared make mistakes and lose even more money. So now its Monday you find yourself down another $2000 with no prospects of borrowing the money to pay off either the book or your loan.

This makes Monday nites game a literal do-or-die game and this is where the suitcase bet come in. You bet the amount of your losses on one game and as soon as the bet is placed you pack your suitcase and leave it right next to the door. Either the game hits and you're off the hook or once the final whistle blows you grab the suitcase and drive off into the night hoping that Vinnie or Anthony never again make your acquaintance.

I made a few suitcase bets long ago and fortunately I won them all. So what I've done is adapt an offshoot of the suitcase bet and I put it into play this weekend.

My theory is that as long as you can always double your bet and you don't reach the betting limit you will never lose. Bet $100 lose, bet another $100 lose, bet $200 lose, bet $500 lose, bet $1200 etc. The theory is since picking a winner of a game is a 50/50 proposition that the odds are huge that you will not lose 8 games in a row.

Now to be truthful I rarely ever play this way as its rarely ever needed, its more of a gadget play a flea-flicker or double reverse if you will. I usually do decent as a sports bettor so the conventional offense seems to work out well. Yes there are winning and losing weeks but all in all its profitable.

Until this week that is. Last weekend I made a lot of money so I upped my bets a little and got killed on Saturday. Killed in that I lost every bet I made. So I reached deep into the play book and called, "Suitcase Variation."

I was going to wager all I was down plus juice plus $100 on one early game on Sunday. If that lost I would do the same on one the late game in Afternoon, then Sunday nite then Monday night. In my mind there was no way I was going to lose 4 more in a row. No fucking way possible. Now of course it's possible but not really probable.

So I look the board over and decide on a team which happened to be my most hated team and also my teams biggest rival. That's right J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. What happens? I never even need to sweat the game and pick an easy winner. I erase all my loses from Saturday and end the weekend up a nice $100.

Now the sick part of me was I almost rooting for a loss so I could feel all the dread and nervousness that would have come if I had to double down on the next game. You all know the feeling. The hairs on your neck standing on end, you're pacing watching the game, you have no time to hear another persons voice as they have no idea what you're going through at that very moment. That true addict degenerate moment we sometimes crave.

Now that its Monday I'm glad the Jets won and I didn't have to go through the progressions. I'll gladly take my $100 and move on to the next weekends games.

And yes I'll probably play a token race or two today and try to go deep in the 20K while a multi-table that with a cash game while watching Monday Night Football. Who knows I might even make a small wager on the game.

Next time there won't be I'm going to take my ball and go home moment. Hopefully.

Hope you all had a profitable weekend.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

It's Over

Enough is enough.

Just try to post 7 losing picks in a row documented for all to see. I might as well leave two more, you can decide if I'm due or just riding a huge slump?

Jets +9
Jacksonville -2'


My step-father was just diagnosed with some nasty cancer its not looking good.

Carmen and I are no longer together she moved out today. You don't need to pick sides it was a mutual thing.

I'm tired of getting ass fucked playing poker online and I'm tired of seeing players suffer one sick beat after another. It's also now illegal anyway. I live in Vegas, donkey capital of the planet, why do I need to even play online when I can find 50 games within 15 miles?

It's time for changes all around, time to evaluate and pick the best course of action.

Yes I'm staying in Vegas and yes I'm going to play a lot of live poker.

I sold a very lucrative, in demand, and recession proof business in Florida. It's time to consider doing the same in Vegas.

Oh by the way, I'm single again, Did you here that ladies?

Good Luck to you all.

Stay profitable.

This blog is dead.