Thursday, August 02, 2007

Too Funny So On We Go

It seems like I sparked up some debate yesterday with my anti-MTT post and from the comments and my girlie chat blowing up I just want to clearify a couple things.

Wait first go this article where the author goes a lot more in depth than I did.

First, the gist of the post was refering to me and me alone so remember it's my blog and I write how things relate to me. If I am ever refering to or implying something negative towards any individual I will use their name and most probably link them. So if you got your panties in a bunch then toughen the fuck up.

Second, the post was also meant for people to reflect on themself which I'm assuming it did. Like many of my other posts I base the content on myself but I try to write in a way people may want to look inward and see how that content may or may not apply to them. If you looked up yourself and thought just a little bit about your successes or failures as an MTT or cash player than good.

Finally and most importantly, my whole point is that 95% of people who play tournaments are losing players. That's it.

Yes they're fun, yes people work all day and play MTTs for entertainment, yes we have a competition like the BBT that attracked a lot of us many times a week, yes you need a different skill set to play MTTs than you do need for cash games, yes your buy-in is fixed, yes you have a chance to make a huge score (well some do), yes, yes, yes, to all the contrary opinions but I'll type it one more time.

95% of people who play tournaments are losing players. Again thats my whole point.

Look my biggest score at an MTT was recently at the Venetian where I won $3100 or so. I'm a guy thats never had a big score although I've tried and I will keep trying. Am I competent enough to win? I think so. Do I work on my MTT game and discuss situation with people who are better than me and that have had major successes? Yes I do. Would a big cash help my career as a professional poker player? Fucking A right it will. We can go on and on about the difference between cash and MTTs but I stand by the point I was trying to make.

Moving on. Maybe we can get some posts from the successful and almost successful tournament players on end game play? How about this one? Why don't some of you successful tournament players do a post about what it takes to win one of these things with stellar late game play and why you think so many people only go deep. Then maybe the guys who always go deep but never win can do a post about why they think they just can't get over the hump and win, if they are even trying to win.

It seems that many players, myself included, play like card dependent pussies and usually blind off waiting for KK or AA to hopefully show up late. Or people who just try to move up slots just so they can make another $100 instead of playing to win the fucking thing. This is something that would really interest me.

How about a couple examples? Let's take last nights 50-50. 1056 entrants $52,800 prize pool, 153 make the money. Minimum payout $79.20. Minimum final table payout $818.40, first prize $10090.08. It takes 127 cashes to equal one win, it takes 12 9th place finishes to equal one first place finish. Why is it that so many people play like complete scardy cats if they ever get into the money instead of playing for the one huge prize on top?

So why are some people successful and win some of these big prizes and why are a bunch of other players just ITM or final one or two table finishes but never seem to get that elusive huge win and are happy to come in 12th or 7th every time. And don't give me that unlucky shit. That would make some interesting reading to me and I'm sure many others to see the end game broken down and why some win and so many others only go deep.

The freeroll tonight and the Big Game on Sunday. Yes I'll be at both and I look forward to both. Yes I'll probably try to satellite into the $55K and $50-50 tonight as I try to take a shot at a big score. Yes that will be at Bellagio all weekend betting on baseball and trying to run over the soft $2/5 tables.

Enjoy your day and good luck tonight.


At 1:10 PM, Blogger knicksgrl0917 said...

hey! i'm going to cali this weekend and won't be back until is the website i was talking about where i made extra summer cash. Later! the website is here

At 1:23 PM, Blogger DuggleBogey said...

Saying that 95% of tournament players are losing players (a number I suspect you are making up) is still meaningless unless you compare it to the percentage of successful cash players.

At 2:29 PM, Blogger Drizztdj said...

You made me take a hard look at whether or not those $5, $10, Token tourneys are slowly nibbling away at my small bankroll or if they're helping.

Thanks Don.

At 2:38 PM, Blogger SirFWALGMan said...

I agree with Duggles.. I think the statement "95% of all players are losing players" would be accurate too...

At 2:39 PM, Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Great post.

Btw, I do think that a lot of people have the mentality of "cashing" being an accomplishment. Especially maybe if they have a short bankroll? I don't know. I totally agree with you so I don't understand that mentality but it's almost as if being able to say I cashed is better than bubbling by going for a big win. That makes no sense to me but there are plenty of things that make no sense so I just chalk that up to the 8th wonder of the world.

At 3:08 PM, Blogger Craig Cunningham said...

As always, I'm late to the party here...

I spoke to several players about this (Raymer, Katja Thater, ElkY, Strasser), and I think the universal agreement is exactly where you came out. To your point, you have to basically win or finish in the Top 3-5 of an event to make a good ROI in the context of all the times you don't cash or squeak through into the money.

There are exceptions, but the number is pretty slim. JC Tran and Kathy Liebert are two examples of heavy tourney players. From my understanding, Liebert only plays tournaments and grossed $737k in winnings over the last twelve months. Compare that to Jennifer Harman, who grossed $85k in the same time period.

Online MTT pros may also be a different category, the players who literally play 10-20 MTT's a day. Maybe there are a core group of very successful players here, but again the number is small.

I would guess more players have run themselves to ruin chasing MTT glory than they have playing cash games at the Bellagio, or at least it appeared that way from those I talked to this summer and last.

At 3:50 PM, Blogger Chad C said...

I would say 90% sounds about right.... But everyone is also one big break away from being a winning player. Poker is ghey and it makes my head hurt.

At 5:31 PM, Blogger HighOnPoker said...

Nice new banner. I wanted to address some of your questions.

Why is it enough to merely final table if the big money is in the top spots? Because the more you final table, the more you are giving yourself a serious chance to win. Once you get to the final table, you have a MUCH better chance to win the thing, even if you are the short stack, due to the escalating blinds. I.e., the more you get to the final table, the more you give yourself an opportunity of the big payoff.

But this is all semantics. Its crazy how everyone takes everything so personally (myself included, at times). Kudos for shaking it up.

At 8:03 PM, Blogger blkmagik said...

I've had pretty good luck with PokerStars Sunday Million but I also realize that MTT's are major crapshoots and there are so many factors in play other than how you play that can determine how deep you go. I made the final table once on Sunday Million and bubbled off the final table once and have cashed several times but haven't had much luck with table assignments. It always seems that the tables that I get assigned to don't have as many chips in play as others or there just aren't many opportunities to amass a huge stack, consequently I hit the final table with one of the small stacks and I always play to win, not see how long I can hang around and move up the pay list. I would like to hit the final table with a competitive stack just once and see how it plays out. But regardless of how it does, luck just plays a larger part in MTT's than cash games.

At 6:30 PM, Blogger surflexus said...

Don, You have made us all take a closer look at our game and I just wanted to tell you thanks.


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