Monday, September 17, 2007

Blood Bath in the NFL

It was a fucking blood bath at the sports book yesterday as the dogs went an unbelievable 11-3-1 against the spread with six of those dogs as outright winners. Also the home Dogs went 4-1 with three outright winners. Wow. Teasers got destroyed, money line parlays with heavy favorites down the tubes, if a player broke even this week it really was a job well done.

Two teams that really destroyed everyone was Cincy and New Orleans. Bettors played them heavy against the spread but where they really got killed is with teasers. Having Cincy -1 and New Orleans +2 looked like sure fired winners but any tickets with either team on there was a big loser. Indy and Denver were two more teams that players bet heavy on that got them crushed.

Really the only thing that saved a lot of players from going completely busto was Dallas smoking Miami. That at best kept most loses down from what could have been a catastrophe to a lot of players. Seriously, we could have seen a lot of Joe average bettors blowing through their rolls in only Week 2.

So the question going forward is was this a fluke and will we see the favorites come back and kill the dogs or is this just another year of the dog? The prediction from my last post was accurate as I said the dogs will be barking with so many big numbers and home dogs but I do see things cooling off somewhat next week as there are much smaller numbers across the board and only three home dogs on the card.

I will say this though, going forward on a card of sixteen games, I think it should be very rare that anybody makes a bet on a road favorite. They always look so good but what usually happens is you get beat. So start looking close at home dogs or else don't bet the game. Find yourself a better spot to get your money in.

Tonight I'm going to have a small play on the ForeSkins +7. I see this being a close game as neither team is all that good at this point in the season. Give McNabb another month though to get really healthy and I think we see Philly go on a nice run but for now I'm going to take the points.

Hope you still have some money left after yesterday and hopefully win or lose we all learned a lesson. That's right learn how to bet the dogs in the NFL.


At 2:04 PM, Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Cincy cost me a little over a full buy in at a 2-4NL game... f*ckin aye... at least they lost. Worst case scenario for me would have been for Cincy to win AND not cover.

At 2:09 PM, Blogger smokkee said...

black Sunday.

At 3:20 PM, Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Yeah that's right, bet the Redskins man. That team couldn't score 7 points even with their opponents not even on the field. They are a worthless pile of shit and will be facing an angry Philadelphia team embarrassed by losing to one of the worst (2-0) teams in football last weekend.

F the skins.

At 3:56 PM, Blogger Irongirl01 said...

Great call on the dogs barking, baying, howling, humping the favorites.

I can only imagine the looks on the faces of the walking wounded out of the sportsbooks.

The best record going into tonite for my league is 11-4 so If i salvage at 8-8 Im still in good position two weeks in.

Hope you were profitable

At 6:44 PM, Blogger Donkeypuncher said...

Sweet Jebus. I got slaughtered yesterday - had a bunch of teasers with Cincy and the Saints.

My junk will be sore for the next two weeks.

At 11:02 PM, Blogger smokkee said...

nice call on the 'skins. i took the skins +7 and the under (39) on a parlay. looking good so far.

neither one of these teams look very good.

but, kudos to Gibbs for bringing the offense back on the field to score a TD when Reid called a timeout to freeze the kicker.

i bet Reid doesn't do that again when the other team is outta timeouts and in the red zone.

At 1:27 PM, Blogger Blinders said...

The play is to take the points the first few weeks of the NFL season. NFL teams change so much during the offseason, and the lines are set in genral on last years results. Might as well take the points when the books have not got things straigt yet. I think you could find this trend just about every year with the dogs covering too much the first few weeks.

Going to jump in the BFFB? You are missing out, and could take it down easy. Not too late.

At 1:33 PM, Blogger pokerpeaker said...

I can't imagine betting on NFL games this early in the season. No one really knows how players and teams will pan out until the first few games are in the books. That's how the league is. Unless, of course, it's the Pats.

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