Friday, September 14, 2007

NFL Week Two

No poker talk today because it's football time.

So far in NFL
Favs 8-6-2
O/U 6-10
Home Dogs 2-2
AFC vs NFC 2-1-1

Week two has five lines -9 or higher which usually means the dogs will be barking. There are five home dogs this week which should be another factor for the bettors to be careful. So I am looking for a mix of favs, dogs, and home dogs. Here is a look at some of the games I have interest in for Week 2. I will post some of my bets on here tomorrow so you might have to do some Saturday morning reading if you want some picks.

Cincinnati -7 41' at Cleveland
Cincy owns the shitty Browns both home and on the road. Last year on Thanksgiving weekend I made a nice score on this game while sitting on the beach in Florida as the Bengals laying three won 30-0. Should it really be any different this year? Bengals have some offense weapons and played decent defense on Monday vs the Ravens. The Browns are fucking awful. The spend all pre-season working with Charlie Frye at QB then bench and trade him after week one. WTF? The fans will be screaming for Brady Quinn and it's just a matter of time before he gets the nod. It's also a matter of time before Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weiss are back on the cheating Bill Bilichick's staff. Just like Pittsburgh last week I see the Bengals in a blow out.

Indy -7 46 at Tennessee
Indy looked like a powerhouse in their blow-out of the Saints in Week One and you would think they would easily handle the Titans in this one. Tennesssee played a fantastic game against in their upset win vs Jax running the ball down their throat and IMO Jeff Fischer is easily one the best coaches in the NFL. Since Vince Young has taken over Tenn is a covering machine including one and three point losses which both covered last year vs Indy. This year's number is almost identical to last year as the Titan were getting 7'. The number is 7 now and I'm hoping the public pushes it up to 7'. The Titans are the play here.

Detroit -3 42 vs Minnesota
I really think this Lion team is for real and with the talent they have at WR and Mike Martz running for wide out sets this team will be tough to spot. Minnesota beat a super soft Atlanta team and they needed nothing from their young QB but this week it might be a different story as they will need to put points on the board. I'm sure they will be trying to again run the ball and control the clock but can their defense stop Kitan and the boys? Detroit fans have some hope for the first time in about 15 years and this Ford Field should be rocking in the home opener. I see the Detroit winning this by 10+.

Dallas -4 40 at Miami
Dallas moved the ball at will against the Giants last Sunday night and Washington ran the ball down Miami's throat winning in OT. All the media is hanging all over Dallas' dick and they are trying to again become America's team and from what I've seen and read they are now NFC Champs at 1-0 and Tony Romo is the MVP. According to the experts Miami is rebuilding, they have no weapons on offense, their defense is getting old and soft, and they really have no shot right. So why is the line only -4? Seems too good to be true right? TRAP! This is a trap game if I've ever seen one. Dallas has a huge game next week at Chicago and I really think they will overlook the Fins especially in an out of conference game. Miami is tough at home in September the crowd will be up and ready for the home opener. I'm guessing 85% of the money is coming in on but if I do bet this game the only pick is Miami +4 at home.

Denver -10 38 vs Oakland
Denver lead the game at Buffalo for all of one second, just happened to be the last second. They totally outplayed the Bills but barely got by with a win. Oakland got down big but fought back hard at home against Detroit and they do seem to have a little more fire in them this year. Denver does not cover big numbers well at home. Oakland seems to cover big numbers on the road as a dog. I like Oakland +10.

Chicago -12' 34' vs Kansas City
Kansas Shitty sucks balls. I cant think of one good think to say a them. Chicago played a strong game at San Diego in week one although their offense sputtered. The also lost two starters on a defense that I think is better than last years yet they are still laying some serious wood in this game. Chicago is a strong team at home vs AFC opponents (other than Miami kicking the shit out of them last year) and the Chiefs are a team that covers at home but not on the road. Lay the points and go with the Bears.

N England -3' 47 vs San Diego
Sit back and enjoy this game as there is no need to bet on it unless you need to bail out from your shitty afternoon picks at which point I'd say flip a coin. I'll pass.


At 12:52 PM, Blogger DuggleBogey said...

No O/U picks?

At 3:42 PM, Blogger Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

I agree basically 100% with all of your picks. Another nice job from you analyzing these games.

At 8:59 PM, Blogger Mike Maloney said...

I'll be interested to see how Detroit/Minny plays out. I think it will be a good measuring stick on how good Detroit's offense will be this season. The Vikes defense is nothing to sneeze at, but their offense is pretty one-dimensional.


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