Thursday, September 06, 2007

Week 1 Spread Write-Ups

NFL Week 1

I'm having trouble sinking my teeth into the Week 1 games and it looks like the linesmaker are as well seeing we have a bunch of three and six point spreads.

Right away we have four road favorites so we'll get a look at how the home dogs start the season. My guess is home dogs cover two of four so be careful if you go that route.

Two big numbers, New England 6' and Indy 6, are probably over-inflated as all the pre-season hype has both as prohibitive favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Don't forget my adage, "Looks too good to be true." In the NFL if it looks too good there is usually a catch.

All right Week 1 and yes all opinions are against the spread.

Indy -6 53 vs New Orleans.
Great game to kickoff the season with the Super Bowl Champs at home against NFC Runners-Up. I'm on the Saints bandwagon and I don't think last year was a fluke. They are loaded offensively and have who I think is a top-notch coach. Indy got the prize last year but do they come out hungry or do they come out flat. Let's not forget the Indy run defense was dead last against the run last year allowing nearly 40 yards more a game than the second worst run defense. Right now I'm leaning on taking the Saints plus the points but I haven't yet made it official.

Houston -3 38 vs Kansas City
QB Matt Schaub has everyone in Houston talking but lets see if the OL keeps him on his feet. Does Ahman Green have anything left in the tank or will he bust? It's year two of the Kubiak experience so I'll hope opinion on this team for now. I think Kansas City will really suck. I've never been a fan of Herm Edwards, he's a great speaker but he's a shitty coach. He ran the Jets into the ground and I think he'll run the Chiefs into the ground. They do have a massive home field advantage and they are usally a team to bet on at home and bet against on the road. Let's see if they bad enough that the home field advantage dissipates. This line opened at a pick but is up to three meaning not many bettors have faith in KC either. I'll pass.

Denver -3 37 at Buffalo
Denver is a strong road team especially out of the division. I like Jim Bates as the DC who's defensive scheme is perfect for CBs Bailey and Bly. With a good defense a lot will ride on Cutler in his first full season as a starter. Keep and eye on Denver all year as I think they will present us with some good spots. I think Buffalo is a mess. 80 year old GM, huge question mark at QB, a rookie running back. Word is rookie QB Edwards might be ready to take over whenever Losman falters and they compare RB Lynch's style to that of Thurman Thomas. I think they'll suck with Losman and start off slow. Of all the road favorites I think this would be best to put a few dollars on.

Pittsburgh -4' 37 at Cleveland
Last chance for Romeo and the only question I have is how long until the fans and media are calling for Brady Quinn. I don't see much hope for the Browns this year but they are a team to keep an eye on as a Home Dog. Pittsburgh didn't cover in their first six roads games last year before getting the last two. Mike Timlin takes over as Steelers coach so they are another team in transition. I'll pass on playing this game but if I did bet it I'd take Cleveland with the points.

Jacksonville -6' 37' vs Tennessee
Was Vince Young a fluke or is he the real deal or better yet is there enough talent around him for this team to win? Jeff Fisher is a great coach his teams are always competitive. This might be a scary team to bet against this year. I'll sit back and watch the Titans for a while. Jax was either really good or really bad last year mostly good while at home. They surprisingly cut Leftwich so I wonder what effect that had on the team. Great RBs, great defense, yet the have melt downs. I'm curious to see how these two teams start the season but for now let's wait.

St. Louis -1 42' vs Carolina
Man the Rams have some weapons on offense and I like their HC Scott Linehan. Don't be fooled by their poor preseason numbers because what you saw was very vanilla. Can their defense hold up is my question. Two game ending FGs by Seatlle kept the Rams from the play-offs last year, so they might be a team flying under the radar. Carolina certainly has the potential to go deep this year but as far as covering spreads they are one of the worst. Rams are the play here.

Philly -3 42' at Green Bay
Watch out for Philly this year provided McNabb stays healthy. I think the NFC East blows and Philly charged hard at the end of last year with Garcia in at QB. How did the Pack go 8-8 last year with Favre at QB. This team has no proven RB, question marks at WR, but their defense is getting better. They do play in the NFC North so that has to count for something. Philly seems like a no-brainer here but is it too good to be true?

Minnesota -3 35' vs Atlanta
Matt Schaub was Michael Vicks back-up in Atlanta before being traded to Houston during the off-season. We all know what happened to Vick. Joey Harrington takes over at QB and Bobby Petrino takes over a team that seems like its been underachieving for ten years. No telling how Atlanta starts the year. Minnesota has a huge question mark at QB but can they play stellar defense and run the ball effectively enough to consistently win? I'm not sold on Childress but this will only be his second year so I'll pass on judgement for now. This line opened at a pick but is up to three now that Vick is gone. I'll pass on either side. I will keep on eye on both these teams to see how they start the season though as both could be trendy either as winners or losers. If you like to play totals I think the Under is a strong play. Two top ten defenses two not so electric offenses. I can't see this contest getting out of the twenties.

Washington -3 34' vs Miami
Has the NFL passed Joe Gibbs by? The Skins have some tools on offense and a decent defense but can Jason Campbell carry the load? Miami is still rebuilding from the Dave Wannstedt era never mind the super donkey Prick Saban. The Fins will have a monster defense but can they be competitive offensively. I think they hired the right coach but how long will he take to turn this team around. The question I have to ask myself is why are the Skins only a 3 point favorite? This game is a toss-up but you can believe it will the game I have my main focus on.

N Englands -6' 41 at NJ Jets
All that hype has NE as nearly a TD chalk. Man they do look strong on paper but will they continually cover big spreads every week especially on the road. I think the Jets overachieved last year but a healthy Thomas Jones could really help this team. Their ultra conservative offense and tough defense could keep them in a lot of games. I'm passing on this game but I would lean towards the Jets + the points as NE usually starts the season slow.

Seattle -6 41 vs Tampa
Seatlle is my dark horse to win the NFC. Alexander and Hasselhoff are back, Branch is a stud and they have a definite home field advantage. Watch out for this team. Tampa was horrible last year but Garcia is a perfect fit for Gruden's offense. If they get off to a good start watch out for them to make some noise, if not bu-bye John Gruden. I'll pass on this game.

San Diego -6 42' vs Chicago
Norv Turner? He's only lost everywhere he's been and I'm going to miss betting against Marty in the play-offs. This team is loaded though one of the most talented in the league. Do not underestimate the loss of Wade Phillips with this defense or Cam Cameron with the offense. Chicago was a fluke. Rex Grossman are you kidding me? They had a great defense last year but can they repeat that performance? How many are in prison BTW? Soft division and soft schedule could have the hype machine churning again. Seems Chicago has some value here but I'm not touching it.

Oakland -2 39' vs Detroit
Well Oakland does have a strong defense and they do play well at home. If Culpepper is recovered he'll make this team competitive. Detroit was my sleeper until everyone jumped on the bandwagon but they might be the new Greatest Show on Turf with all their offensive talent. Any other year Oakland is a lock in this game, this year its up in the air. I'm not playing it but I'll give Oakland the nod to cover.

Dallas -6 44 vs NJ Giants
I can't stand Tiki Barber but all the shit he's talking has to be true. Eli Manning is a pussy and Tom Couglin is a douche bag coach. Man do I love to watch Big Blue lose but I'm going to wait til right before the ship starts sinking to make some money against these clowns. Is Tony Romo real or was he a one half-season wonder. Best thing that happened to Dallas was Fat ass Parcels leaving, now maybe this team can be loose and play football. I think we'll get Dallas in some good spots this year but I think I'll wait. Definite lean towards the Cowgirls.

Cincy -2' 40' vs Baltimore
This is a game I'm really looking forward to. Cincy's defense has never lived up to the Marvin Lewis hype but the offense is still very strong although they will miss Chris Henry. Baltimore gagged it in the play-offs at home last year but with the addition of McGahee they could be dangerous as he fits their offense perfectly. Their defense rocks too. Later in the season I bet Baltimore here but with it being the opener I'm going to pass.

San Fran -3 45' vs Arizona
San Fran is another team the media is expecting big things from. They have some talent of offense and they made some key signings on defense. I still think they are a year away though. Arizona might just have the right coach to turn this shit franchise around but the Bill Bidwell factor is hard to overcome as there must be some curse after he stole this team from his brother 40 years ago. Leinhart in year two could be a good fit and they do have some studs at the skill positions. Defense and OL are question marks, as always. The only thing that scares me about this game is why San Fran is only a three point favorite. Seems too good to be true.

There you have it. If you are playing the games make a ton of money.

BTW Seattle lost again making them 1-6 on the trip. Too bad they have a day off today.

ML 6-1 +$435
RL 4-3 +225


At 11:57 AM, Blogger StB said...

Nice summary Don. I like the Niners this weekend, but you are so right. That spread is too good to be true.

I will be playing the bEagles and the Steelers though. Don't think either game will be close.

At 1:22 PM, Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Great write up. I like the Steelers but I am biased. But Cleveland sucks. And the Dawg Pound is not what it used to be. I also like Tenn +6 with a not yet proven Jax O. I also like Jets +6 and Baltimore +2 at home. Cincy is overrated. Sure they have a strong offense. But it usually takes some time to get the offense going just to get the timing right and stuff. First game of the season, generally should be more about run games and defense. In that sense, Baltimore has the edge. And at home? I have to take Baltimore here. And I HATE Baltimore... oh yeah, I HATE Cincy too.

At 1:44 PM, Blogger Chad C said...

Eagles is the easiest bet of the weekend. I don't care what anyone says. GB has no RB, a bad QB, and marginal targets to throw to. The Eagles have a faster defense than last year, and McNabb looks fantastic already! Throw in Brian Westbrook (maybe the most underrated player in the NFL) and you have a no brainer. I know the whole "too good to be true" thing is usally right. But it is only week 1 so the odds makers cannot be THAT sharp yet.

Philly 24 GB 13

At 3:26 PM, Blogger smokkee said...


At 11:17 PM, Blogger Irongirl01 said...

Very nice recap. Im with you on Seattle..:). I think we agree on most picks for the week fortunately Im not picking the spread. I have my first week picks posted on my blog.

As of right now Indy is covering NO handily. This was my toughest pick. I like NO but I think its going to take a bit for them to get going


At 9:56 AM, Blogger jamyhawk said...

Great analysis. Care to make a lock of the week?

My money is all on Seattle! LOTW!!


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