Friday, October 05, 2007

+EV Coin Flips

It's rare in Vegas you can find coin flips where you get odds but I think we have a case of this rare situation in the National League Play-offs. Both the DBacks and the Rockies lead their series' 2-0 and since the inception of the Wild Card only one team has ever come back from an 0-2 defecit.

After watching both games of both series I think it has safe to say both the D'Backs and Rockies will win their series'. Right now the odds on both teams to win the NL Pennant are 6:5 which would give the bettor odds on a coin flip. Now yes we have to assume that both are going to play in the NLCS and just maybe the odds might change if and when both teams win their Division Series' thus nullifying the +EV on the coin flip but I strongly feel the sitution is there and that a bet on either side right now is a +EV coinflip.

You don't find this sitution often in Vegas and I would say pick either the D'Backs or Rockies now and take the odds. I went with the Rockies since they are white hot right now winning 16 of 17 games.

A reply to Duggle Bogey's comment from yesterday. He and I have butted heads quite frequently but I like this debate since we are both actually civil and one might even call this, dare I say, friendly banter so those wanting a flame war move on the Waffles blog. Duggle feels there should be no bet on the Yankees-Indians series while I feel betting the Indians is a no brainer but I'll break it down to it's simplest form.

If you ran this series 14 times would the Yankees win it 9 and would the Indians win it 5? I say no. I think Cleveland wins it 7 and the Yankees win it 7 thus to get Cleveland at +180 is +EV and a bet you must make.

This is the same value you would have gotten and won betting against the Yankees to Detroit in 2006, the Angels in 2005, the Red Sox in 2004, the Marlins in 2003, the Angels in 2002, and the D'Backs in 2001. Vegas overinflates the line on the Yankees in the post season because they can still get Yankee action. So again I feel strongly that betting on Cleveland was a +EV move.

Somebody asked me if I had any college football plays but I'm basically done betting college football. I will have random plays mostly on the single games during the week but I've found it both time consuming and difficult to go through a card of 50 games and finding good solid plays. What I do is go through the list of games and whittle the card down to maybe ten games, study those somewhat and maybe make a couple small plays just to have some action.

I preach the dogs week after week in the NFL but some week coming up the favorites will clobber the dogs and the public will get a few bucks back, that is if they have any bucks left to bet. Is this going to be the week? As I've been studying the card I'm having difficulty finding any great dog plays yet. I'm still studying though and tonight the Hilton Contest picks are released so that as always will be insightful in which ways the sharps are leaning. I'll post something on here tomorrow morning with plays for Sunday. I've been very hot lately, particularly in the NFL, so I hope to keep up the streak through the weekend.

Weak is in town so it looks like live poker today at the Venetian. Two times in one week wow. I might even go meet KOD over at Caesars tomorrow which would be my first three times in one week live poker in months. I am trying to put more hours in this month so a couple more sessions would get me off to a good start.

Hope everyone has a great weekend and makes a ton of money whether it be from sports betting or poker. Get out and play live somewhere too and get away from those monitors.


At 12:41 PM, Blogger Joe Speaker said...

"...since the inception of the Wild Card only one team has ever come back from an 0-2 defecit."

Actually, it's at least twice. Yanks in 2001 and Red Sox in 2003. I know. It was against the A's both times. Yanks actually lost the first two AT HOME then won 3 straight.

Still very unlikely. We must remember that the A's were involved and I don't think the Rockies or the D-Backs are nearly as gutless as those chokers.

At 1:33 PM, Blogger Mike Maloney said...

I'm glad to know you're having trouble finding dogs to go with this weekend. When I did my initial picks without even looking what the spread was I ended up picking nothing but favorites. Ugh.

At 2:59 PM, Blogger StB said...

You don't find the Aints somewhat interesting? They have to win a game. They are not that terrible. Not good, but not that bad.

At 4:18 PM, Blogger DuggleBogey said...

I guess my point was that since the Yankees were 6-0 against Cleveland in the regular season, you need to come up with reasons why you think that trend isn't correct if you're going to make that bet.

Even saying that Sabathia didn't pitch is only 1-2 games worth of difference in a 3 out of 5 series.

Based on your logic you should always bet against the Yankees in every single instance just because of the numbers, and that strategy obviously isn't going to pay off in the long run.

Or is it?

At 4:21 PM, Blogger DuggleBogey said...

On other topics, I think the hardest week to bet in the NFL, is the week after all the dogs cover. Its even worse the all the dogs win outright, like they did last week.

Suddenly everyone looks like a favorite.

At 1:00 AM, Blogger Poker Jones said...

You are correct, sir. The Indians at +180 to win the series was indeed a good value. Given the measurables (starting with pitching), it was practically a no-brainer. The Indians' 0-6 regular season record is not one of those measurables. Matsui's horrible September, gimpy knee and A-Rod's inability to hit in the postseason are. It must be a beautiful thing to be able to take advantage of the squares' love of Yankees and the imbalanced lines it creates.

At 10:56 AM, Blogger DuggleBogey said...

How can you say an 0-6 isn't a measurable? If you don't count that in your handicapping, you're just throwing darts.


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