+EV Coin Flips
It's rare in Vegas you can find coin flips where you get odds but I think we have a case of this rare situation in the National League Play-offs. Both the DBacks and the Rockies lead their series' 2-0 and since the inception of the Wild Card only one team has ever come back from an 0-2 defecit.
After watching both games of both series I think it has safe to say both the D'Backs and Rockies will win their series'. Right now the odds on both teams to win the NL Pennant are 6:5 which would give the bettor odds on a coin flip. Now yes we have to assume that both are going to play in the NLCS and just maybe the odds might change if and when both teams win their Division Series' thus nullifying the +EV on the coin flip but I strongly feel the sitution is there and that a bet on either side right now is a +EV coinflip.
You don't find this sitution often in Vegas and I would say pick either the D'Backs or Rockies now and take the odds. I went with the Rockies since they are white hot right now winning 16 of 17 games.
A reply to Duggle Bogey's comment from yesterday. He and I have butted heads quite frequently but I like this debate since we are both actually civil and one might even call this, dare I say, friendly banter so those wanting a flame war move on the Waffles blog. Duggle feels there should be no bet on the Yankees-Indians series while I feel betting the Indians is a no brainer but I'll break it down to it's simplest form.
If you ran this series 14 times would the Yankees win it 9 and would the Indians win it 5? I say no. I think Cleveland wins it 7 and the Yankees win it 7 thus to get Cleveland at +180 is +EV and a bet you must make.
This is the same value you would have gotten and won betting against the Yankees to Detroit in 2006, the Angels in 2005, the Red Sox in 2004, the Marlins in 2003, the Angels in 2002, and the D'Backs in 2001. Vegas overinflates the line on the Yankees in the post season because they can still get Yankee action. So again I feel strongly that betting on Cleveland was a +EV move.
Somebody asked me if I had any college football plays but I'm basically done betting college football. I will have random plays mostly on the single games during the week but I've found it both time consuming and difficult to go through a card of 50 games and finding good solid plays. What I do is go through the list of games and whittle the card down to maybe ten games, study those somewhat and maybe make a couple small plays just to have some action.
I preach the dogs week after week in the NFL but some week coming up the favorites will clobber the dogs and the public will get a few bucks back, that is if they have any bucks left to bet. Is this going to be the week? As I've been studying the card I'm having difficulty finding any great dog plays yet. I'm still studying though and tonight the Hilton Contest picks are released so that as always will be insightful in which ways the sharps are leaning. I'll post something on here tomorrow morning with plays for Sunday. I've been very hot lately, particularly in the NFL, so I hope to keep up the streak through the weekend.
Weak is in town so it looks like live poker today at the Venetian. Two times in one week wow. I might even go meet KOD over at Caesars tomorrow which would be my first three times in one week live poker in months. I am trying to put more hours in this month so a couple more sessions would get me off to a good start.
Hope everyone has a great weekend and makes a ton of money whether it be from sports betting or poker. Get out and play live somewhere too and get away from those monitors.