Thursday, October 04, 2007

Indians Baby

Two winners last night. I'm hot lately.

Someone asked if I knew the Yankees were 6-0 vs Cleveland this year. Well really dude do you think I just throw darts when I'm making my plays? Actually I broke down the games they played, I broke down the when the played and what streaks either team might have been on, and I broke down the value of playing either side.

Cleveland has better starters and a better bullpen and IMO pitching wins in the play-offs. Also don't forget the Yankees did not face CC Sabathia in any of the six games and if the series goes five games they see him twice both times in Cleveland. So factor better pitching and home field advantage, in with the public, 95% of which can't pick their ass, who are all over the Yankees and what you have is in inflated line. So Cleveland at +180 is value and it's +EV. Sure the Yankees might win the series but the bet to make is Cleveland. There is a reason Vegas books clean out the public and betting the Yankees at -220 is one of the reasons.

All that said I like Cleveland at home tonight at +110 as well as Cleveland for the series which I bet at +180.

Also I made a small play on Kentucky-South Carolina to go UNDER 57'.

I had fun playing live poker the other night. I flopped a set of sixes in the BB in a five way pot and stacked some dude who tried to get cute with AA. Let's face it AA sucks in cash games unless its HU. Who the fuck in their right mind smooth calls with those fuckers knowing five people will probably see the flop.

I've gotten comments before about the swings playing $1/2 or $1/3 NL in Vegas but I'm going to have to disagree there unless you're a real nit who only plays premium hands and are especially readable. Yes you will face some suckouts from donkeys playing third pair like its a straight flush but for the most part the tables are so weak-tight that you can steal pots all day long and get paid off on your monsters. So I've found winning sessions to be hugely profitable and losing sessions to be small and manageable which is ideal.

Brandi Hawbaker was there playing at a different table. She had on these huge fashionable sunglasses, listened to her I-pod with huge bose headphones, and read fashion magazines while she played. She did though make a grant exit. Last I saw here she was screaming into her phone calling someone, "a fucking liar and I can't believe you lied to me you mother fucker." This went on from the time she was racking her chips, waiting in line at the cage to cash them out, and storming out of the room. Man what is it about Caesars? Last year Shiekhan had that big ruckus while I was there and now Brandi baby.

One last poker item. Max Pescatori has an entry in the Hilton Super Contest and as good as a tournament player he may be, he's a complete donkey at picking the NFL. His record stands at 5-15 and he's in near last place out of 430 or so entries. Excellent guy to fade his picks.

Hope everyone is playing well and making money.

3 Comments:

At 2:16 PM, Blogger Alan aka RecessRampage said...

I will certainly not question your picks... but doesn't CC have a horrendous ERA against the Yankees?

 
At 3:05 PM, Blogger DuggleBogey said...

Nobody was suggesting you bet the Yankees. For the reasons you mention they are RARELY a good bet (the exception being the Mariners games this year, and even then you didn't get the payouts you should have because it was "THE YANKEES")

I was suggesting a no bet.

Look, the Yanks were 6-0 vs Cleveland this year. You can look at that two ways. Either you think it happened for a reason, or you think it was just a coincidence.

Since we agree that things generally happen for a reason, you gave your reasons to explain why you think that happened and why it should not affect your bet on this series.

I disagree that your reasons (Not facing Sabathia, superior bullpen [Chaberlain has a .38 ERA?!?], right odds etc.) are enough to overcome the fact that this should be a no bet because the Yankees handled the Indians all year.

 
At 6:09 PM, Blogger Shea Bailey said...

Hope you are having a better year than me.

 

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