Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Rainy Wednesday

I'm down in dreary Florida this week getting some work done and I've yet to see the sunshine. I'm not complaining it's nice to actually see some clouds and rain since it's rare you ever do living in Vegas. September is usually hot as balls here anyway so the cloud cover and rain have kept the temps down so it's been bearable.

I've been working on a marketing campaign as I try to bring this business back from the dead. It's almost stable but the cash flow is lacking right now as September is the worst month for drug addicts and alcoholics to go to treatment then aftercare. Funny how there are seasons for self destruction. Most everyone is rippin'and runnin' through the summer and when the weather starts to get colder getting off the streets and into treatment becomes almost plausible in the addict mind.

Winter time is booming down here and no I'm not talking vacation tourist donkeys I'm talking about upper middle class snot nosed twenty somethings from the Northeast. Two weeks into a 28 day treatment when the therapists start to mention after care wintering in Florida doesn't sound like such a bad idea. Hopefully we'll get through this lull and start lining up addition treatment centers to send their clients down this way. Of course I'll be consulting from Las Vegas but nothing wrong with a week every month down in Florida during the winter.

Has anybody looked ahead at the lines for this weekend yet? In the NFL there are nine home dogs out of only 14 games. That should tell all you sports bettors to be fucking careful. Yes, of course some road chalks are going to win but there will also be upsets aplenty so don't get caught with your pants down betting the wrong ones. If there was ever a week to take off from the NFL it's this one coming up. Hopefully we can sort through this mess and pick out some winners.

In the college ranks I already bet Clemson -3 over Georgia Tech and Oregon -4 over Cal. Oregon is up to 5- already as they look to avenge last years thrashing. I personally think the Ducks are a fantastic team and should win this game buy a touchdown+ so there is still value in the line.

After I get done with things today I think I'm going to fire up some online poker. Yes you heard that right online poker. It is Wednesday so I'm going to head over to The Mookie for some donktastic blogger action. Come on out and see if you can knock out Hoyazo and keep his streak of never winning the Mookie intact. I'm going to see if I can't take down my fourth Mookie of the year provided I either get some cards (doubtful) or you donkeys fold.(extremely doubtful)

Have a good Wednesday and I'll see some of you tonight.

Monday, September 24, 2007

Who Doesn't Like Mondays

Well I finally played the Battle of the Bloggers over at Fantasy Sports Live and sweet, I took down first place for a score of $45. I also sampled another contest and got second so a great start. If you aren't playing over there yet Waffles then you should be its a blast just don't sign up in my game because I plan on winning every single week.

I had a very good weekend at the sports book as my top team Pittsburgh cashed a nice ticket. I was able to press the Jax/Den game Over at 1pm then make some nice scratch on Dallas +145 on the ML to close things out. All the top cappers in the Hilton Contest like Tennessee plus the points tonight so I'm going to make a small wager on them also.

Looking ahead to next week Miami owns the AFC West so look for them to put an ass-kicking on the Raiders this Sunday to get their first win. The line opened at 5 and has been bet all the way down to 3' so lets see where it goes from here. In college I would bet Clemson -3 right now at Georgia Tech as I look for them to run it up on a vastly overrated Tech team. Sorry Bayne but your Ramblin' Wreck is just that and I see there current two game losing streak turning into five with Clemson, Maryland, and Miami the next three contests. Clemson is too fast on both sides of the ball and should win this game by 14+.

If any of you Southern California bloggers are around today you could probably assist a friend so go talk Smokkee off of that canyon ledge before he jumps. Sorry the Chargers suck balls. You don't think coaching matters in the NFL? Go see what Norv Turner, he of one of the worst all-time coaching records in NFL history, has done to this team. Let's not forget the always awful Ted Cotrell as the DC who has ruined what was once a ferocious defense and rookie OC Clarence Shelmon who has turned Cam Cameron offense into shit. You fire Marty after going 14-2 and you don't replace him with Wade Phillips or Cam Cameron? Has anybody noticed what Phillips has done with a Cowboy team that fat-ass has been Bill Parcells underachieved with every year? That's right 3-0 and easily the best team in the NFC. That could have been your team Charger fans. There is hope though Smokkee, the AFC West sucks so you might win that division but no way you beat two of New England, Indy, or Pittsburgh on the road in the play-offs?

Week 9 Sunday November 4th New England at Indy in what should be a battle of the unbeatens. I look forward to that.

I'm off to Florida tonight for a short week of business and I'll be back early Friday morning. The weather is beautiful here in Vegas so I'm not looking forward to the heat and humidity of late September down there. I will try to get to the beach for a swim on evening though. I was looking forward to checking out the mob scene and playing some live poker while there but I won't have the time. I'll be there for an extended stay at Thanksgiving so I'll definitely give it a go then.

Hope everyone made money at the sports books and the poker table this weekend. Back mid week from sunny Florida.

Friday, September 21, 2007

A Look at Week Three

I wasn't looking for you guys to kiss my ass yesterday I was just stating that readership is off since I went away from poker content which I find humorous. Guess I better sell my cross-over appeal a little harder!

How about the Hurricanes baby? Sorry JJ but they took Texas A&M to the fucking woodshed and the ass kicking at the Orange Bowl brought back a ton of memories. Nothing like an 18-play 83-yard drive on the first possession with the temps at 86 and the humidity at 70%. If you did watch what is up with Texas A&M running the option circa 1972 and with a slow white QB? That team gets behind its over man. We should be able to make some money betting against this team as they play road games at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Missouri.

I finally signed-up for the Blogger Contest over at Fantasy Sports Live which appears to be a great site. I spotted all you donks two weeks but watch out because I plan on winning this bad boy. I'll play a couple contests this weekend and I'll let you know my thoughts on the site and contest early next week. I will say the reviews from everyone that plays there already are stellar so come out and join us and see if you can knock me off.

It's Friday that means lets get to some NFL. It was a blood bath last week with all the dogs covering and I'm not sure we are going to see much difference this week. I will say that if anybody takes a road favorite and lays the points you deserve to get what you get.

Through Week 2
Favs 11-18-3
O/U 14-18
Home Dogs 6-3
AFC vs NFC 4-3-1

Indy -6 47' at Houston and San Diego -5 43 at Green Bay
These are two very dangerous games that I will not bet. You have two very public backed teams against two upstarts that are 2-0. If you find yourself wanting to bet either Indy or SD (not to say either wont cover) then I would call you a square and I will gladly book every single bet you ever make on the NFL.

Kansas City 2' 33' vs Minnesota
No write-up as I'd rather go watch a high school game than this potential disaster. I do like the game to somehow go over the 33'.

Philly -6' 44' vs Detroit
Did anybody watch Philly's first two games? I did and I am baffled that Philly is a 6' point favorite over anyone. Donovan McNabb looks like he's an old and slow 40-year old and IMO this team is done for the year. Why you ask? Because McNabb himself told us by playing the race card and moaning how tough it is to be a black QB in the NFL. You know what McNabb fuck you! I find that to be an excuse that he is not 100% back from his knee injury and to have the QB of all things making excuses to this magnitude means he's quit. Detroit had the hand of god come down and miraculously clear born again QB Jon Kitna's concussion and helped lead them on the winning drive in OT so how can you not like a team with the lord and savior jesus christ at the helm. I don't believe in any god but Kitna does and in this game it's all that matters. I'm taking the points.

N England -16' 41 vs Buffalo
If you lay 16' points in the NFL you need your head examined. If you bet Buffalo you also might need your head examined. Pass.

Jets -3 35' vs Miami
The Jets have beaten Miami something like 16 out of 20 and every single trend you can find points to the Jets here. The first time in my life I bet against the Fins was last Christmas when they were favored over the Jets and go figure I won. Just like last year it looks like betting against Miami is like printing money so I don't know how you can't load up on the Jets in this one although that line does smell a little fishy.

Pittsburgh -9 38 vs San Fran
Granted the Steelers thrashed Cleveland and Buffalo but they still look like they are for real. San Fran is averaging 190 yards a game in total offense and they are absolutely the worst 2-0 team in the league with two fluke wins over Arizona and St Louis. I just don't see them being able to move the ball against the leagues #3 defense. I'm not a fan of betting favorites nevermind big ones but I'm laying the wood here and taking the Steelers to blow out the 49ers.

Baltimore 8 35' vs Arizona
Baltimore looks bad on offense. Arizona played a great first half before almost blowing it to Seattle last week. I'm not a fan of playing Arizona on the road traveling cross country but if I were to play this I'm taking the points.

Denver -3' 35' vs Jacksonville
These are two teams waiting to erupt offensively and I think this is the week. I like the OVER.

Washington -3' 40' vs NY Giants
Something stinks about this game. 2-0 Washington vs 0-2 GMen and the line is only 3'? I file this under the too good to be true category. I'm not betting this game but if I was I would take the Giants plus the points. Did I mention something smells fishy?

Chicago -3 41 vs Dallas
The Bears Offense stinks but they have good defense and special teams. Dallas looks strong this year and I think Wade Phillips was a great hire for them. I'll bet a few dollars with Dallas on the ML in this game. You should be able to get +145 or +150 which I find value in.

That's all I have for this rainy 62 degree Friday in Vegas. After that long hot summer today is a welcome relief. Good Luck with your plays this weekend and find you some dogs to bet.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Poker Content Wow

The number of those who visit this blog are shrinking. I guess the transformation away from poker has been a bad idea for readership purposes. Man I never knew how addicted to poker all you dorks really are. I understand you foresake family, commitment, social activities, etc. for all poker all the time so shame on me for thinking there might be some diversity out there. So without further ado here is some poker content and no I won't copy and paste any hand histories.

Played at the Venetian yesterday and got up early hitting some big pots with hands like J8 sooted and 47o. (from the SB) Then I started getting cards and things went South in a hurry. Within about 30 minutes I had AA and a set of sixes (how come you luck boxes always flop sets and they hold) get cracked by some Euro donk who flushed me on the river. I did get out with minimum damage so at least I know when I'm beat and I can still fold with the best of them.

Side note, Do any college kids read this blog? If so I'd like to know if the are now offering Euro Math as an elective? They didn't have that when I was in college so I might have to see if University of Phoenix online offers it as I need to figure out the basics of flush chasing and call stationing. My brain and trusty calculator are having trouble in this area so any assistance would be greatly appreciated.

Anyway here is a fun hand that if I typed in the hand history form you all so know and love you swear it would be an actual online hand but nope it happened live.

Some aggro Asian donk gets moved to the table and this guy is loose aggressive like you read about. In a ton of hands, calling down with questionable shit but for the most part running over a very weak-tight table. Mmmm juicy. I love to trap me some aggro donks.

Three limpers I make it $15 to go with TT and only aggro Asian comes along. Flop is Td 8d 3s. Bingo baby top set. Funny thing is the T is the door card and before the dealer even spreads the flop and I can see the other two cards I immediately think how do I get his stack. I make a cheesy $15 bet in the hopes to look weak and he min check-raises me to $30. I pause for about 5 seconds and make it $100 which he insta-calls.

Turn is a Qh and to my delight he jams. Wow he must have something like TP with a flush draw but he's up against my set so I'm at least a 75% favorite so I call and turn over my set. He turns over Qd 3d. Now I'm sure he put me on an over pair and really thought he was ahead but I didn't think he was that strong either and I can't really fault him for playing the hand the way he did but he is trapped and while he does have some outs he is drawing thin.

River is Ad and I get fucking flushed for the third time in an hour. It's sick really. I take three weeks off from playing poker and the first day back I get fucked in the ass not once, not twice but three times in one hour. Anyway I took a walk, came back, bought in for some more and grinded my way back to only a small lose of $140. Oh well it was one of those days...again. I should have walked with a $600 profit instead I take a loss. At least I was only playing $1/2 with a $300 max or it could have been really ugly.

So there you go poker content with a bad beat just how you guys like it. Sorry its a narrative and not a hand history but hopefully you can get the jist of things.

You all do know I'm just busting your balls about your poker obsessions right? I'm not joking about my readership falling though which I do find hysterical.

Go Canes tonight against those A & M goat ropers. It will be nice to get a win at home against a good team as we head into the ACC season. I'm betting on the Canes -2 but I'm sure the public is licking their chops at the chance to bet on the Aggies.

Let's talk some football tomorrow.

Monday, September 17, 2007

Blood Bath in the NFL

It was a fucking blood bath at the sports book yesterday as the dogs went an unbelievable 11-3-1 against the spread with six of those dogs as outright winners. Also the home Dogs went 4-1 with three outright winners. Wow. Teasers got destroyed, money line parlays with heavy favorites down the tubes, if a player broke even this week it really was a job well done.

Two teams that really destroyed everyone was Cincy and New Orleans. Bettors played them heavy against the spread but where they really got killed is with teasers. Having Cincy -1 and New Orleans +2 looked like sure fired winners but any tickets with either team on there was a big loser. Indy and Denver were two more teams that players bet heavy on that got them crushed.

Really the only thing that saved a lot of players from going completely busto was Dallas smoking Miami. That at best kept most loses down from what could have been a catastrophe to a lot of players. Seriously, we could have seen a lot of Joe average bettors blowing through their rolls in only Week 2.

So the question going forward is was this a fluke and will we see the favorites come back and kill the dogs or is this just another year of the dog? The prediction from my last post was accurate as I said the dogs will be barking with so many big numbers and home dogs but I do see things cooling off somewhat next week as there are much smaller numbers across the board and only three home dogs on the card.

I will say this though, going forward on a card of sixteen games, I think it should be very rare that anybody makes a bet on a road favorite. They always look so good but what usually happens is you get beat. So start looking close at home dogs or else don't bet the game. Find yourself a better spot to get your money in.

Tonight I'm going to have a small play on the ForeSkins +7. I see this being a close game as neither team is all that good at this point in the season. Give McNabb another month though to get really healthy and I think we see Philly go on a nice run but for now I'm going to take the points.

Hope you still have some money left after yesterday and hopefully win or lose we all learned a lesson. That's right learn how to bet the dogs in the NFL.

Friday, September 14, 2007

NFL Week Two

No poker talk today because it's football time.

So far in NFL
Favs 8-6-2
O/U 6-10
Home Dogs 2-2
AFC vs NFC 2-1-1

Week two has five lines -9 or higher which usually means the dogs will be barking. There are five home dogs this week which should be another factor for the bettors to be careful. So I am looking for a mix of favs, dogs, and home dogs. Here is a look at some of the games I have interest in for Week 2. I will post some of my bets on here tomorrow so you might have to do some Saturday morning reading if you want some picks.

Cincinnati -7 41' at Cleveland
Cincy owns the shitty Browns both home and on the road. Last year on Thanksgiving weekend I made a nice score on this game while sitting on the beach in Florida as the Bengals laying three won 30-0. Should it really be any different this year? Bengals have some offense weapons and played decent defense on Monday vs the Ravens. The Browns are fucking awful. The spend all pre-season working with Charlie Frye at QB then bench and trade him after week one. WTF? The fans will be screaming for Brady Quinn and it's just a matter of time before he gets the nod. It's also a matter of time before Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weiss are back on the cheating Bill Bilichick's staff. Just like Pittsburgh last week I see the Bengals in a blow out.

Indy -7 46 at Tennessee
Indy looked like a powerhouse in their blow-out of the Saints in Week One and you would think they would easily handle the Titans in this one. Tennesssee played a fantastic game against in their upset win vs Jax running the ball down their throat and IMO Jeff Fischer is easily one the best coaches in the NFL. Since Vince Young has taken over Tenn is a covering machine including one and three point losses which both covered last year vs Indy. This year's number is almost identical to last year as the Titan were getting 7'. The number is 7 now and I'm hoping the public pushes it up to 7'. The Titans are the play here.

Detroit -3 42 vs Minnesota
I really think this Lion team is for real and with the talent they have at WR and Mike Martz running for wide out sets this team will be tough to spot. Minnesota beat a super soft Atlanta team and they needed nothing from their young QB but this week it might be a different story as they will need to put points on the board. I'm sure they will be trying to again run the ball and control the clock but can their defense stop Kitan and the boys? Detroit fans have some hope for the first time in about 15 years and this Ford Field should be rocking in the home opener. I see the Detroit winning this by 10+.

Dallas -4 40 at Miami
Dallas moved the ball at will against the Giants last Sunday night and Washington ran the ball down Miami's throat winning in OT. All the media is hanging all over Dallas' dick and they are trying to again become America's team and from what I've seen and read they are now NFC Champs at 1-0 and Tony Romo is the MVP. According to the experts Miami is rebuilding, they have no weapons on offense, their defense is getting old and soft, and they really have no shot right. So why is the line only -4? Seems too good to be true right? TRAP! This is a trap game if I've ever seen one. Dallas has a huge game next week at Chicago and I really think they will overlook the Fins especially in an out of conference game. Miami is tough at home in September the crowd will be up and ready for the home opener. I'm guessing 85% of the money is coming in on but if I do bet this game the only pick is Miami +4 at home.

Denver -10 38 vs Oakland
Denver lead the game at Buffalo for all of one second, just happened to be the last second. They totally outplayed the Bills but barely got by with a win. Oakland got down big but fought back hard at home against Detroit and they do seem to have a little more fire in them this year. Denver does not cover big numbers well at home. Oakland seems to cover big numbers on the road as a dog. I like Oakland +10.

Chicago -12' 34' vs Kansas City
Kansas Shitty sucks balls. I cant think of one good think to say a them. Chicago played a strong game at San Diego in week one although their offense sputtered. The also lost two starters on a defense that I think is better than last years yet they are still laying some serious wood in this game. Chicago is a strong team at home vs AFC opponents (other than Miami kicking the shit out of them last year) and the Chiefs are a team that covers at home but not on the road. Lay the points and go with the Bears.

N England -3' 47 vs San Diego
Sit back and enjoy this game as there is no need to bet on it unless you need to bail out from your shitty afternoon picks at which point I'd say flip a coin. I'll pass.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Football

Wow, it's the busy time in the sports world with the start of something more important than anything else on this planet, thats right football. Wait, this is a poker blog so let's start with some poker content first.

I was suppose to meet ex-blogger KOD (no sense linking his blog since it's history) but I just can't bear missing football to sit at a table with a bunch of douchebags so I didn't meet him on Tuesday, or Friday, or definitely not Saturday. I did though hit-and-run a couple cash games online for some decent profits but that maybe took two half hour sessions.

Thank you Oklahoma for kicking Miami's ass and running up the score. Guess you guys are still pissed from the 80s when we kicked your asses every year. Anyway this reminds me of us losing to Florida St (when's the last time you won anything) 47-0 and Syracuse (haha you guys are fucking pathetic) 66-13 back when we were coming off probation following Dennis Erikson. Butch Davis took a team way low on talent, built them up and took them to a National Championship in 2001 and only a fixed game in 2002 against some crappy Big Ten team prevented Miami from going back-to-back.

Now Randy Shannon takes over a team low on talent thanks to Larry Coker not being able to recruit and he too will build Miami into a powerhouse once again. Our early recruiting class for next year is head and shoulders above anyone else and once the talent starts showing up in Coral Gables its over. So all you haters get ready to watch Miami win a couple more Championships really soon. Oh yea Oklahoma, you guys are really good, but don't think we won't be waiting for you when you come to Miami in 2009.

Man there are some truly shitty teams in the NFL this year. So much for parity and everybody going 8-8. I can't remember two teams as shitty as Cleveland and Kansas Shitty. Seriously I might really have to bet against those donks every single week they are so bad. Thankfully they don't play each other. How about those Arizona Cardinals? They can find a way to lose a game like no team I've ever seen before. Wow. Can't wait to see how this season shakes out because there might be five or six teams that don't win more than 4 games. I also hope somebody beats N England this year so Miami can remain the only team to go unbeaten for an entire season. Man with Moss there now they might be unstoppable.

Speaking of betting against teams, how about that call I made on the Mariners road trip? That was sheer brillance.

ML 8-2 +500
RL 6-4 +375

The intention was this to be much longer but some things came up that I had to deal with so sorry this is all you get. I'll finish up with some more thoughts tomorrow.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Week 1 Spread Write-Ups

NFL Week 1

I'm having trouble sinking my teeth into the Week 1 games and it looks like the linesmaker are as well seeing we have a bunch of three and six point spreads.

Right away we have four road favorites so we'll get a look at how the home dogs start the season. My guess is home dogs cover two of four so be careful if you go that route.

Two big numbers, New England 6' and Indy 6, are probably over-inflated as all the pre-season hype has both as prohibitive favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Don't forget my adage, "Looks too good to be true." In the NFL if it looks too good there is usually a catch.

All right Week 1 and yes all opinions are against the spread.

Indy -6 53 vs New Orleans.
Great game to kickoff the season with the Super Bowl Champs at home against NFC Runners-Up. I'm on the Saints bandwagon and I don't think last year was a fluke. They are loaded offensively and have who I think is a top-notch coach. Indy got the prize last year but do they come out hungry or do they come out flat. Let's not forget the Indy run defense was dead last against the run last year allowing nearly 40 yards more a game than the second worst run defense. Right now I'm leaning on taking the Saints plus the points but I haven't yet made it official.

Houston -3 38 vs Kansas City
QB Matt Schaub has everyone in Houston talking but lets see if the OL keeps him on his feet. Does Ahman Green have anything left in the tank or will he bust? It's year two of the Kubiak experience so I'll hope opinion on this team for now. I think Kansas City will really suck. I've never been a fan of Herm Edwards, he's a great speaker but he's a shitty coach. He ran the Jets into the ground and I think he'll run the Chiefs into the ground. They do have a massive home field advantage and they are usally a team to bet on at home and bet against on the road. Let's see if they bad enough that the home field advantage dissipates. This line opened at a pick but is up to three meaning not many bettors have faith in KC either. I'll pass.

Denver -3 37 at Buffalo
Denver is a strong road team especially out of the division. I like Jim Bates as the DC who's defensive scheme is perfect for CBs Bailey and Bly. With a good defense a lot will ride on Cutler in his first full season as a starter. Keep and eye on Denver all year as I think they will present us with some good spots. I think Buffalo is a mess. 80 year old GM, huge question mark at QB, a rookie running back. Word is rookie QB Edwards might be ready to take over whenever Losman falters and they compare RB Lynch's style to that of Thurman Thomas. I think they'll suck with Losman and start off slow. Of all the road favorites I think this would be best to put a few dollars on.

Pittsburgh -4' 37 at Cleveland
Last chance for Romeo and the only question I have is how long until the fans and media are calling for Brady Quinn. I don't see much hope for the Browns this year but they are a team to keep an eye on as a Home Dog. Pittsburgh didn't cover in their first six roads games last year before getting the last two. Mike Timlin takes over as Steelers coach so they are another team in transition. I'll pass on playing this game but if I did bet it I'd take Cleveland with the points.

Jacksonville -6' 37' vs Tennessee
Was Vince Young a fluke or is he the real deal or better yet is there enough talent around him for this team to win? Jeff Fisher is a great coach his teams are always competitive. This might be a scary team to bet against this year. I'll sit back and watch the Titans for a while. Jax was either really good or really bad last year mostly good while at home. They surprisingly cut Leftwich so I wonder what effect that had on the team. Great RBs, great defense, yet the have melt downs. I'm curious to see how these two teams start the season but for now let's wait.

St. Louis -1 42' vs Carolina
Man the Rams have some weapons on offense and I like their HC Scott Linehan. Don't be fooled by their poor preseason numbers because what you saw was very vanilla. Can their defense hold up is my question. Two game ending FGs by Seatlle kept the Rams from the play-offs last year, so they might be a team flying under the radar. Carolina certainly has the potential to go deep this year but as far as covering spreads they are one of the worst. Rams are the play here.


Philly -3 42' at Green Bay
Watch out for Philly this year provided McNabb stays healthy. I think the NFC East blows and Philly charged hard at the end of last year with Garcia in at QB. How did the Pack go 8-8 last year with Favre at QB. This team has no proven RB, question marks at WR, but their defense is getting better. They do play in the NFC North so that has to count for something. Philly seems like a no-brainer here but is it too good to be true?

Minnesota -3 35' vs Atlanta
Matt Schaub was Michael Vicks back-up in Atlanta before being traded to Houston during the off-season. We all know what happened to Vick. Joey Harrington takes over at QB and Bobby Petrino takes over a team that seems like its been underachieving for ten years. No telling how Atlanta starts the year. Minnesota has a huge question mark at QB but can they play stellar defense and run the ball effectively enough to consistently win? I'm not sold on Childress but this will only be his second year so I'll pass on judgement for now. This line opened at a pick but is up to three now that Vick is gone. I'll pass on either side. I will keep on eye on both these teams to see how they start the season though as both could be trendy either as winners or losers. If you like to play totals I think the Under is a strong play. Two top ten defenses two not so electric offenses. I can't see this contest getting out of the twenties.

Washington -3 34' vs Miami
Has the NFL passed Joe Gibbs by? The Skins have some tools on offense and a decent defense but can Jason Campbell carry the load? Miami is still rebuilding from the Dave Wannstedt era never mind the super donkey Prick Saban. The Fins will have a monster defense but can they be competitive offensively. I think they hired the right coach but how long will he take to turn this team around. The question I have to ask myself is why are the Skins only a 3 point favorite? This game is a toss-up but you can believe it will the game I have my main focus on.

N Englands -6' 41 at NJ Jets
All that hype has NE as nearly a TD chalk. Man they do look strong on paper but will they continually cover big spreads every week especially on the road. I think the Jets overachieved last year but a healthy Thomas Jones could really help this team. Their ultra conservative offense and tough defense could keep them in a lot of games. I'm passing on this game but I would lean towards the Jets + the points as NE usually starts the season slow.

Seattle -6 41 vs Tampa
Seatlle is my dark horse to win the NFC. Alexander and Hasselhoff are back, Branch is a stud and they have a definite home field advantage. Watch out for this team. Tampa was horrible last year but Garcia is a perfect fit for Gruden's offense. If they get off to a good start watch out for them to make some noise, if not bu-bye John Gruden. I'll pass on this game.

San Diego -6 42' vs Chicago
Norv Turner? He's only lost everywhere he's been and I'm going to miss betting against Marty in the play-offs. This team is loaded though one of the most talented in the league. Do not underestimate the loss of Wade Phillips with this defense or Cam Cameron with the offense. Chicago was a fluke. Rex Grossman are you kidding me? They had a great defense last year but can they repeat that performance? How many are in prison BTW? Soft division and soft schedule could have the hype machine churning again. Seems Chicago has some value here but I'm not touching it.

Oakland -2 39' vs Detroit
Well Oakland does have a strong defense and they do play well at home. If Culpepper is recovered he'll make this team competitive. Detroit was my sleeper until everyone jumped on the bandwagon but they might be the new Greatest Show on Turf with all their offensive talent. Any other year Oakland is a lock in this game, this year its up in the air. I'm not playing it but I'll give Oakland the nod to cover.

Dallas -6 44 vs NJ Giants
I can't stand Tiki Barber but all the shit he's talking has to be true. Eli Manning is a pussy and Tom Couglin is a douche bag coach. Man do I love to watch Big Blue lose but I'm going to wait til right before the ship starts sinking to make some money against these clowns. Is Tony Romo real or was he a one half-season wonder. Best thing that happened to Dallas was Fat ass Parcels leaving, now maybe this team can be loose and play football. I think we'll get Dallas in some good spots this year but I think I'll wait. Definite lean towards the Cowgirls.

Cincy -2' 40' vs Baltimore
This is a game I'm really looking forward to. Cincy's defense has never lived up to the Marvin Lewis hype but the offense is still very strong although they will miss Chris Henry. Baltimore gagged it in the play-offs at home last year but with the addition of McGahee they could be dangerous as he fits their offense perfectly. Their defense rocks too. Later in the season I bet Baltimore here but with it being the opener I'm going to pass.

San Fran -3 45' vs Arizona
San Fran is another team the media is expecting big things from. They have some talent of offense and they made some key signings on defense. I still think they are a year away though. Arizona might just have the right coach to turn this shit franchise around but the Bill Bidwell factor is hard to overcome as there must be some curse after he stole this team from his brother 40 years ago. Leinhart in year two could be a good fit and they do have some studs at the skill positions. Defense and OL are question marks, as always. The only thing that scares me about this game is why San Fran is only a three point favorite. Seems too good to be true.

There you have it. If you are playing the games make a ton of money.

BTW Seattle lost again making them 1-6 on the trip. Too bad they have a day off today.

ML 6-1 +$435
RL 4-3 +225

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Futures

A lot of my friends had bankrolls. A lot of my friends started playing Omadraw. A lot of my friends went busto. Omadraw is like crack once you start you can't stop...until you are out of money. That's the end of any boring poker content for today.

I'm putting the finishing touches on my Week 1 point spread analysis and I'll have it posted tomorrow morning. I'm not crazy about the board so I would say to tread lightly.

Seattle is now 1-5 on the road trip and I guess we saw why the line was so high yesterday.

ML 5-1 +$335
RL 3-3 +$105

Tonight Yankees are -165 on the ML and +120 on the RL. Good luck if you are playing along at home.

Some of you know this story but a dealer at Red Rock who is a heavy sports bettor hipped me to a play he makes every year. He finds an extreme long shot in the NFL and bets a future ticket on them to win the Super Bowl. If the team makes the play-offs then he hedges the ticket so he is guaranteed some winnings. Last year he had $200 on New Orleans at 125:1, which would have paid $25K. He hedged the first game for $1K, then thinking the Saints would lose the NFC Championship game against the Bears he hedged and walked with $8K. Not a bad return wagering a total of $1200 to win $8K.

Now I figured I give it a go this year and originally my thoughts were to bet on Detroit who opened at 70:1 but unfortunately I didn't make the move in time and suddenly they are only 30:1. I just couldn't pull the trigger on any real long shots so I decided to find some value and I played Seattle at 25:1. Here is the action.

Seattle to win Super Bowl $600 to win $15K
Seattle to win Super Bowl $200 to win $5K
Seattle to win NFC $200 to win $1400

I did a bit of a preseason hedge so I can keep the $200 tickets in case Seattle wins it all and if and when Seattle makes the play-offs I can hedge the bigger ticket. Either way if Seattle makes the play-offs I should get a decent return on investment. A big thanks to Clemson for kicking the shit out of Florida St which is what financed this investment.

Fantasy Football draft with some fellow bloggers tonight which should be fun. $100 entry fee, ten teams, paid out like a SnG. I luckboxed into the first pick so I guess that makes me the favorite.

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Clemson Weekend

Easy winner on Clemson last night. Woot woot.

Hey Seattle finally won a game. Halfway through their 10 game trip and the numbers are now.

ML 4-1 +$235
RL 2-3 $5

Today is a scary day. ML is -260 and the RL is a horrible -140. I hate going to the window on days with these numbers but I have to follow through on the trend.

Looking ahead to the NFL and I see nothing I like yet. I'm leaning towards taking the Saints plus the points on Thursday night but right now that's it. There is nothing wrong with taking a pass and finding a better spot in Week 2.

The Canes got off to a good start thumping Marshall 31-3. It's going to be tough going in Oklahoma this week and hopefully we can stay in the game. For all you haters out there, do yourself a favor and read this article about the new Miami coach Randy Shannon. It's an amazing story and it leads me to believe the future looks bright for the Canes. Back-to-back National Champions in 09 and 10?

The Big 10 has, does, and always will suck balls. Nothing better than seeing Michigan choke that game away. It will be interesting to see what happens to them the rest of the year now that they can kiss the National Championship good-bye. Now if someone can please upset the Luckeyes so we don't have to hear about their overrated asses all year.

Watch out for the Pac 10 this year. There are some really good teams in that conference that nobody hears about because of the biased (location not liberal) media.

Speaking of media, if you like to cap games best thing you can do is limit how much ESPN etc. that you watch and always remember that the on air talent are not professional gamblers and that their opinions are more about controversy and ratings than picking winners.

Why is it that the NFL can fit a 60 minute game into three hours yet it takes a college game four hours? Man those games are way too fucking long. Greedy fucking NCAA perhaps? Who needs a play-off by the way lets just vote. Ghey.

Did anyone watch the Cal-Tennessee game? Apparently Cal needs to expand its facilities to house more of their teams, both men's and women's not just football, and to do so they have to tear down some 100 year old trees as its the only place that makes sense to do it. But Cal being Cal, there are a handful of dirty barefoot hippies who decided to move into the trees to prevent them from being cut down.
Brent Musburger is telling us the story and you can hear that he's not a fan of liberal tree hugging hippies, so he's adamant that the University has agreed to plant one mature tree and two saplings for every tree they take down and he comes up with the line of the week practically screaming, "Three for one is a good deal, even if you are a tree hugger." I nearly pissed my pants, not just cause I agree but he was actually ticked off.

Also in the game the sideline reported wanders up a hill where a bunch of freaks are watching the game and she gives us a little background about the area and how people have been watching games there for years. Brent asks if there are any festivities going on and the chick says, "They are partying Cal-Berkeley style up here and now that you bring up I better get out of here before I get arrested." Another great line.

Football is back and I feel alive again. It's much better to watch the games than it is to fold cards all day long. Poker is so fucking boring!

Monday, September 03, 2007

Labor Day

College football today I'm taking the home dog.

Clemson +3'

Wow are the Mariners running bad. If you jumped on the bandwagon you are;

ML 4-0 +$400
RL 2-2 +$105

Today Yankess are +115 on RL, so + money with the Yankees at home, hard to turn that down. If you are going ML than it's -165.

I hope everyone is enjoying their Holiday Weekend.

Saturday, September 01, 2007

Saturday College Football

I'm late with my picks today but going forward I'll try to get them posted either earlier or the night before.

My main pick LSU won easily on Thursday night and I was also able to double dip that game by taking LSU -7' in the second half for another easy winner.

Today

Georgia Tech +1' at Notre Dame
Boston College -5' vs Wake Forest
Arizona +3' at BYU (I might also take a shot on the ML +150)
Stanford +17 vs UCLA

After the tradegy at Virginia Tech they might really kick East Carolina's ass. I'm not playing the game but I think there is good value at -28.

The anti Mariner train rolled last night as the Toronto held on for a 7-5 victory giving us the RL win at +175. So on their ten game road trip we are 1-1 +$75. Nothing wrong with being .500 and up almost a unit. Take Toronto again today on the RL at +150.